Cosenza 1-0 Cremonese – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Cosenza at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Cosenza vs Cremonese fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie B clash, Regular Season - 1 as Cosenza welcome Cremonese to Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla. Kick-off is set for Sunday 18 August 2024 at 19:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie B games this season, Cosenza have gone 3W 5D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: W W W D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Cosenza haven't played a Serie B game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Cosenza have posted 2W 4D 4L at Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla — 1.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Cremonese — All Games: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Serie B fixtures this season — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W D W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Cremonese haven't played a Serie B game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
On the road, Cremonese have gone 3W 4D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Cosenza 1.40 PPG, Cremonese 1.30 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The previous 4 encounters between these sides heavily favour Cremonese, who boast 4 victories compared to 0 for Cosenza.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 14 Jan 2024, ended 0–1 with Cremonese winning.
It is worth noting that Cremonese have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 4 wins from 4 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading Patterns
Cosenza in-play and half-time data (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (home games).
Cremonese in-play and half-time data (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cosenza 53% versus Cremonese 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cosenza 42% | Cremonese 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cosenza 1.28 xG and Cremonese 1.21 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cosenza attack 1.045 / defence 1.045 | Cremonese attack 0.952 / defence 0.909. League average goals — home 1.348 / away 1.213. Data: 38 Cosenza games / 38 Cremonese games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Cosenza 37% | Draw 30% | Cremonese 33%. Fair-value odds: Cosenza 2.70 | Draw 3.33 | Cremonese 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.49. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.49 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Cosenza as the most likely outcome at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Cosenza offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.49 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 45% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. Form rates corroborate: Cosenza 80% | Cremonese 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (38 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cosenza vs Cremonese | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla • Kick-off: Sunday 18 Aug 2024, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cosenza 37% | Draw 30% | Cremonese 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 52% | xG Cosenza 1.28 / Cremonese 1.21 • Poisson strength factors: Cosenza attack 1.045 / def 1.045 | Cremonese attack 0.952 / def 0.909 | league avg home 1.348 / away 1.213 • Poisson stance: Cosenza (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.28
Cosenza xG
Expected Goals
1.21
Cremonese xG
52%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cosenza vs Cremonese kick off?
Cosenza vs Cremonese kicked off at 19:30 on Sunday 18 August 2024 at Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla.
What was the final score in Cosenza vs Cremonese?
Cosenza 1 - 0 Cremonese.
Where is Cosenza vs Cremonese being played?
The match is being played at Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla.
What competition is Cosenza vs Cremonese part of?
Cosenza vs Cremonese is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Cosenza vs Cremonese?
Our statistical model gives Cosenza a 37% chance of winning, Cremonese a 33% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Cosenza the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cosenza vs Cremonese?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Cosenza and Cremonese will score (BTTS).
Will Cosenza vs Cremonese have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cosenza and Cremonese?
Record (4 meetings): Cosenza 0W | Draws 0 | Cremonese 4W.
What form are Cosenza and Cremonese in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. Cosenza (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Cosenza's attack at 1.04x the league average against Cremonese's defence at 0.91x — combine the two and it projects 1.28 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Cremonese's attack versus Cosenza's defence, projects 1.21 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 38/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (10.0%), 1-0 (9.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cosenza Win
37%
2.70
30%
3.39
33%
2.99
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.6%
Home win
0 – 1
10.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.28
Cosenza xG
Total xG
2.49
1.21
Cremonese xG
2.70
37%
Home win
3.39
30%
Draw
2.99
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.93
48%
BTTS No
2.08
Clean Sheet
30%
3.34
28%
3.60
Win to Nil
11%
9.03
9%
10.75
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.3 | 10.0 | 6.1 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.6 | 12.8 | 7.8 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 8.2 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 3.5 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cosenza vs Cremonese?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Cosenza and Cremonese expected to score?
The model projects 1.28 expected goals for Cosenza and 1.21 for Cremonese, a combined total of 2.49.
How confident is the prediction model for Cosenza vs Cremonese?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 38 outings, Cosenza have picked up 1.24 PPG on a 11W 14D 13L record — W-W-W-D-D across the most recent five. Cosenza haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Cremonese's form line: 19W 10D 9L from 38 games, 1.76 PPG, last five W-D-W-D-L. Cremonese haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Put side by side, Cremonese are the form team by 0.52 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Cosenza.
Venue Form
On home soil, Cosenza have posted 1.16 PPG from 19 outings (5W 7D 7L).
On the road, Cremonese have gone 9W 5D 5L from 19 away games — 1.68 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Cremonese come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Cosenza are averaging 1.24 goals scored and 1.11 conceded per game recently; Cremonese are on 1.42 scored and 0.89 conceded.
Defensively: Cremonese in 39% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 38 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cosenza
Pre-Season
Cremonese
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cosenza and Cremonese in coming into this match?
Cosenza have gone 11W 14D 13L in their last 38 games (1.24 PPG), while Cremonese have gone 19W 10D 9L in their last 38 (1.76 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cosenza at home or Cremonese away?
Cremonese's away record (1.68 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cosenza at home: 1.16 PPG; Cremonese away: 1.68 PPG.
Have Cosenza or Cremonese been keeping clean sheets recently?
Cosenza have kept a clean sheet in 29% of their recent games, Cremonese in 39%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 18 January 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Cosenza's record when hosting Cremonese specifically: 1W 0D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Cosenza
0
Draws
5
Cremonese
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cosenza and Cremonese?
From 6 meetings on record, Cosenza have won 1, Cremonese have won 5, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Cosenza and Cremonese last play each other?
They last met on 18 January 2025, when Cremonese 3-1 Cosenza.
Who has won more matches between Cosenza and Cremonese?
Cremonese have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Cosenza are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time.
Cremonese see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 21% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cosenza 68%, Cremonese 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 63% (Cosenza) and 53% (Cremonese). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 26% and 16% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Cremonese in 37%; Cremonese in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cosenza home games / Cremonese away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cosenza play Cremonese?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 68% of Cosenza's games and 47% of Cremonese's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Cosenza vs Cremonese usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 63% of Cosenza's matches and 53% of Cremonese's.
Do Cosenza and Cremonese tend to score early?
Cosenza have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Cremonese in 58% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Cosenza edge out Cremonese 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cosenza beat Cremonese 1-0 at Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla, Regular Season - 1, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cosenza 1.28 xG and Cremonese 1.21 xG, a combined 2.49. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Cremonese landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cosenza attack 1.04 / defence 1.04 against Cremonese attack 0.95 / defence 0.91, drawn from 38/38 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cosenza 37% | Draw 30% | Cremonese 33%, with Cosenza to win its most likely call at 37%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cosenza 42%, Cremonese 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cosenza's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not.
Cremonese's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Cremonese arrived the stronger side — 1.76 PPG against 1.24. Form was overturned, with Cosenza winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Cosenza (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.32 average — tighter than their form line. Cremonese (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.21 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.