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Shock result as Cittadella defy the odds to beat Cosenza 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Cittadella beat Cosenza 0-1 at Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla, Regular Season - 23, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Cosenza 1.32 xG and Cittadella 0.97 xG, a combined 2.29. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Cosenza fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cosenza attack 0.84 / defence 1.06 against Cittadella attack 0.84 / defence 1.28, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Cosenza 42% | Draw 34% | Cittadella 25%, with Cosenza to win its most likely call at 42%. Instead the game produced a Cittadella win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 69% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cosenza 40%, Cittadella 45%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Cosenza's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Cittadella's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Cosenza 1.15 PPG, Cittadella 1.18 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Cittadella win broke the near-deadlock. Cosenza (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.27 scoring average — below par going forward. Cittadella (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.53 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights