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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Cosenza edge out Carrarese 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Cosenza beat Carrarese 1-0 at Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla, Regular Season - 25, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Cosenza 1.20 xG and Carrarese 0.86 xG, a combined 2.06. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Carrarese landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cosenza attack 0.76 / defence 1.05 against Carrarese attack 0.74 / defence 1.28, drawn from 62/24 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Cosenza 42% | Draw 34% | Carrarese 24%, with Cosenza to win its most likely call at 42%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 63% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 35% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cosenza 33%, Carrarese 38%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Cosenza's trading profile (24 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.

Carrarese's trading profile (24 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Cosenza 0.92 PPG, Carrarese 1.12 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Cosenza win broke the near-deadlock. Cosenza (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights