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Shock result as Cosenza defy the odds to beat Bari 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Cosenza beat Bari 1-0 at Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla, Regular Season - 36, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Cosenza 0.94 xG and Bari 1.25 xG, a combined 2.20. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Bari landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cosenza attack 0.71 / defence 1.10 against Bari attack 0.96 / defence 1.02, drawn from 72/72 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Cosenza 26% | Draw 32% | Bari 42%, with Bari to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual Cosenza win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 66% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cosenza 42%, Bari 38%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Cosenza's trading profile (72 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not.

Bari's trading profile (72 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Cosenza 1.08 PPG, Bari 1.18 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Cosenza win broke the near-deadlock. Cosenza (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.26 average — tighter than their form line. Bari (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights