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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Monza and Venezia share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Monza and Venezia finished level at 1-1 at Brianteo, Regular Season - 32, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Monza 1.45 xG and Venezia 1.23 xG, a combined 2.67. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Monza attack 1.24 / defence 0.84 against Venezia attack 1.34 / defence 0.85, drawn from 31/31 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Monza 41% | Draw 28% | Venezia 31%, with Monza to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Monza 49%, Venezia 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Monza's trading profile (69 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.

Venezia's trading profile (69 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Monza 1.19 PPG, Venezia 1.39 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights