🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Dominant Monza run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Palermo.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Monza beat Palermo 3-0 at Brianteo, Regular Season - 30, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Monza 1.41 xG and Palermo 1.18 xG, a combined 2.59. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Monza beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Palermo landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Monza attack 1.17 / defence 0.91 against Palermo attack 1.14 / defence 0.90, drawn from 29/67 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Monza 41% | Draw 28% | Palermo 31%, with Monza to win its most likely call at 41%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Monza 49%, Palermo 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Monza's trading profile (67 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not.

Palermo's trading profile (67 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Palermo arrived the stronger side — 1.63 PPG against 1.16. Form was overturned, with Monza winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Monza (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.15 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.21 average — tighter than their form line. Palermo (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.39 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.15 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights