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Prediction vindicated as Monza edge out Juve Stabia 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Monza beat Juve Stabia 2-1 at Brianteo, Regular Season - 25, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Monza 1.64 xG and Juve Stabia 1.01 xG, a combined 2.65. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Monza attack 1.18 / defence 0.98 against Juve Stabia attack 0.98 / defence 1.09, drawn from 24/62 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Monza 52% | Draw 26% | Juve Stabia 23%, with Monza to win its most likely call at 52%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Monza 48%, Juve Stabia 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Monza's trading profile (62 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.

Juve Stabia's trading profile (62 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Juve Stabia arrived the stronger side — 1.48 PPG against 1.06. Form was overturned, with Monza winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Monza (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.13 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights