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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Monza and Frosinone share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Brianteo, Regular Season - 20, as Monza and Frosinone drew 2-2 in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Monza 1.17 xG and Frosinone 1.16 xG, a combined 2.32. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Monza beat their projection by 0.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Frosinone outscored their 1.16 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Monza attack 1.06 / defence 0.92 against Frosinone attack 1.23 / defence 0.84, drawn from 19/57 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Monza 35% | Draw 31% | Frosinone 34%, with Monza to win its most likely call at 35%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. Over 3.5 was 20% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Monza 46%, Frosinone 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Monza's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.

Frosinone's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Frosinone arrived the stronger side — 1.47 PPG against 0.96. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Monza (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.96 average — above their attacking norm. Frosinone (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.11 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.07 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights