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Dominant Monza run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Carrarese.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Monza beat Carrarese 4-1 at Brianteo, Regular Season - 17, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Monza 1.75 xG and Carrarese 0.98 xG, a combined 2.72. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Monza beat their projection by 2.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Monza attack 0.92 / defence 0.86 against Carrarese attack 1.07 / defence 1.42, drawn from 16/54 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Monza 54% | Draw 26% | Carrarese 20%, with Monza to win its most likely call at 54%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 29% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Monza 44%, Carrarese 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Monza's trading profile (54 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.

Carrarese's trading profile (54 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Monza 0.91 PPG, Carrarese 1.19 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Monza win broke the near-deadlock. Monza (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 0.85 average — above their attacking norm. Carrarese (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.74 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights