Modena vs Sudtirol – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model favours Modena (49%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Modena face Sudtirol.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie B encounter, Regular Season - 25 sees Sudtirol travel to Stadio Alberto Braglia to take on Modena. The game is scheduled for Saturday 13 February 2027, 14:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie B games this season, Modena have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: L L W L L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Modena haven't played a Serie B game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
At home at Stadio Alberto Braglia, Modena have gone 4W 2D 4L this season (10 games, 1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Sudtirol — All Games: 0W 5D 5L from 10 Serie B fixtures this season — 0.50 PPG. Last five: L L D D D. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Sudtirol haven't played a Serie B game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Sudtirol away from home this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.20 exceeds their overall 0.50 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Modena carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.60 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.10 vs 0.50. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 8 previous encounters have yielded 3 wins for Modena, 1 for Sudtirol and 4 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.4 per contest from 8 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 11 Apr 2026, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.4 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Modena trading profile (39 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (home games).
Sudtirol trading profile (39 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 42% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (away games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Modena 49% versus Sudtirol 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Modena 49% | Sudtirol 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Modena 1.58 xG and Sudtirol 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Modena attack 0.974 / defence 0.982 | Sudtirol attack 0.989 / defence 1.051. League average goals — home 1.543 / away 1.071. Data: 38 Modena games / 38 Sudtirol games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Modena 49% | Draw 28% | Sudtirol 24%. Fair-value odds: Modena 2.04 | Draw 3.57 | Sudtirol 4.17. Modena hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.62. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.62 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Modena as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Modena offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.62 combined xG gives a 49% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by H2H averaging 1.4 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Modena 50% | Sudtirol 40%.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (38 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Modena vs Sudtirol | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Stadio Alberto Braglia • Kick-off: Saturday 13 Feb 2027, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Modena 49% | Draw 28% | Sudtirol 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 53% | xG Modena 1.58 / Sudtirol 1.04 • Poisson strength factors: Modena attack 0.974 / def 0.982 | Sudtirol attack 0.989 / def 1.051 | league avg home 1.543 / away 1.071 • Poisson stance: Modena (49%) — moderate lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.58
Modena xG
Expected Goals
1.04
Sudtirol xG
53%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Modena vs Sudtirol kick off?
Modena vs Sudtirol is scheduled to kick off at 14:00 on Saturday 13 February 2027 at Stadio Alberto Braglia.
Where is Modena vs Sudtirol being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Alberto Braglia.
What competition is Modena vs Sudtirol part of?
Modena vs Sudtirol is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Modena vs Sudtirol?
Our statistical model gives Modena a 49% chance of winning, Sudtirol a 24% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Modena the favourite.
Will both teams score in Modena vs Sudtirol?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Modena and Sudtirol will score (BTTS).
Will Modena vs Sudtirol have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Modena and Sudtirol?
Record (8 meetings): Modena 3W | Draws 4 | Sudtirol 1W.
What form are Modena and Sudtirol in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. Modena (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-W-L-L.
What do the betting odds say about Modena vs Sudtirol?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Modena's attacking strength (0.97x league average) is weighed against Sudtirol's defensive record (1.05x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.58. The same calculation in reverse, Sudtirol's attack versus Modena's defence, projects 1.04 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 38/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.5%. Close behind: 1-0 (9.9%), 2-1 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Modena Win
49%
2.06
28%
3.61
24%
4.22
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.5%
Home win
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.58
Modena xG
Total xG
2.62
1.04
Sudtirol xG
2.06
49%
Home win
3.61
28%
Draw
4.22
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.90
47%
BTTS No
2.11
Clean Sheet
35%
2.83
21%
4.85
Win to Nil
17%
5.82
5%
20.48
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.3 | 7.6 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.5 | 12.0 | 6.2 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.1 | 9.5 | 4.9 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.8 | 5.0 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Modena vs Sudtirol?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Modena and Sudtirol expected to score?
The model projects 1.58 expected goals for Modena and 1.04 for Sudtirol, a combined total of 2.62.
How confident is the prediction model for Modena vs Sudtirol?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Modena come into this having played 39 games, going 15W 10D 14L for 1.41 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W-L-L. Modena haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
On the other side, Sudtirol sit at 1.08 PPG from 39 outings (8W 18D 13L), a run that reads L-L-D-D-D across their last five. Sudtirol haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Form-wise this is close to level: Modena on 1.41 PPG, Sudtirol on 1.08. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Modena's home form reads 9W 3D 7L across 19 games on their own ground, a 1.58 PPG return.
Away from home, Sudtirol have taken 1.00 points per game from 19 outings (3W 10D 6L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Modena come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Modena are averaging 1.26 goals scored and 0.95 conceded per game recently; Sudtirol are on 0.95 scored and 1.21 conceded.
Defensively: Modena have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 39 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Modena
Pre-Season
Sudtirol
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Modena and Sudtirol in coming into this match?
Modena have gone 15W 10D 14L in their last 39 games (1.41 PPG), while Sudtirol have gone 8W 18D 13L in their last 39 (1.08 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Modena at home or Sudtirol away?
Modena's home record (1.58 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Modena at home: 1.58 PPG; Sudtirol away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Modena or Sudtirol been keeping clean sheets recently?
Modena have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Sudtirol in 26%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. They last met on 11 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The last 3 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Modena's record when hosting Sudtirol specifically: 2W 2D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Modena
4
Draws
1
Sudtirol
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Modena and Sudtirol?
From 8 meetings on record, Modena have won 3, Sudtirol have won 1, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Modena and Sudtirol last play each other?
They last met on 11 April 2026, when Sudtirol 1-1 Modena.
Who has won more matches between Modena and Sudtirol?
Modena have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Modena are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Sudtirol are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Modena 53%, Sudtirol 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 68% (Modena) and 37% (Sudtirol).
On the defensive side: Modena keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches; Sudtirol in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Modena home games / Sudtirol away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Modena play Sudtirol?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of Modena's recent matches and 53% of Sudtirol's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Modena vs Sudtirol usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 68% of Modena's recent games and 37% of Sudtirol's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Modena and Sudtirol tend to score early?
Modena have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Sudtirol in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.