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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Modena run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Spezia.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Modena beat Spezia 3-0 at Stadio Alberto Braglia, Regular Season - 30, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Modena 1.14 xG and Spezia 1.01 xG, a combined 2.15. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Modena beat their projection by 1.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Spezia landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Modena attack 0.83 / defence 0.94 against Spezia attack 0.96 / defence 1.05, drawn from 67/67 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Modena 38% | Draw 31% | Spezia 31%, with Modena to win its most likely call at 38%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Modena 48%, Spezia 39%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Modena's trading profile (67 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not.

Spezia's trading profile (67 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Modena 1.33 PPG, Spezia 1.40 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Modena win broke the near-deadlock. Modena (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.36 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.09 average — tighter than their form line. Spezia (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.15 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights