🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Sassuolo cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Modena.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Sassuolo beat Modena 1-3 at Stadio Alberto Braglia, Regular Season - 33, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Modena 1.65 xG and Sassuolo 1.32 xG, a combined 2.97. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Sassuolo outscored their 1.32 projection by 1.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Modena attack 1.03 / defence 0.91 against Sassuolo attack 1.25 / defence 1.25, drawn from 70/32 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Modena 44% | Draw 27% | Sassuolo 29%, with Modena to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual Sassuolo win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 35% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Modena 43%, Sassuolo 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Modena's trading profile (70 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.

Sassuolo's trading profile (70 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Modena 1.26 PPG, Sassuolo 1.46 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sassuolo win broke the near-deadlock. Modena (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.06 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Sassuolo (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.44 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights