Modena 1-3 Sampdoria – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Modena at 51%, yet other data sources diverge — this Modena vs Sampdoria fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie B clash, Regular Season - 7 as Modena welcome Sampdoria to Stadio Alberto Braglia. Kick-off is set for Sunday 29 September 2024 at 14:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie B games this season, Modena have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.50 PPG return. Last five: W D L D W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Modena have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Stadio Alberto Braglia, Modena have gone 3W 3D 4L this season (10 games, 1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Sampdoria — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Serie B fixtures this season — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L L D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Sampdoria have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Sampdoria's form when playing away from home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Modena 1.50 PPG, Sampdoria 1.40 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Modena, 1 for Sampdoria and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 3 Feb 2024, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Modena trading profile (44 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games).
Sampdoria trading profile (44 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Modena 59% and Sampdoria 61% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Modena 46% | Sampdoria 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Modena 1.78 xG and Sampdoria 1.13 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Modena attack 1.138 / defence 0.902 | Sampdoria attack 1.147 / defence 1.276. League average goals — home 1.225 / away 1.089. Sampdoria bring a strong defensive rating of 1.276 — this is suppressing Modena's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 44 Modena games / 44 Sampdoria games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Modena 51% | Draw 27% | Sampdoria 22%. Fair-value odds: Modena 1.96 | Draw 3.70 | Sampdoria 4.55. Modena hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.91. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.91 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Modena as the most likely outcome at 51% — moderate model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Modena offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.91 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 56% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 58%. Form rates are neutral: Modena 40% | Sampdoria 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Modena vs Sampdoria | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Stadio Alberto Braglia • Kick-off: Sunday 29 Sep 2024, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Modena 51% | Draw 27% | Sampdoria 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 58% | xG Modena 1.78 / Sampdoria 1.13 • Poisson strength factors: Modena attack 1.138 / def 0.902 | Sampdoria attack 1.147 / def 1.276 | league avg home 1.225 / away 1.089 • Poisson stance: Modena (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.78
Modena xG
Expected Goals
1.13
Sampdoria xG
58%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Modena vs Sampdoria kick off?
Modena vs Sampdoria kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 29 September 2024 at Stadio Alberto Braglia.
What was the final score in Modena vs Sampdoria?
Modena 1 - 3 Sampdoria.
Where is Modena vs Sampdoria being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Alberto Braglia.
What competition is Modena vs Sampdoria part of?
Modena vs Sampdoria is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Modena vs Sampdoria?
Our statistical model gives Modena a 51% chance of winning, Sampdoria a 22% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Modena the favourite.
Will both teams score in Modena vs Sampdoria?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Modena and Sampdoria will score (BTTS).
Will Modena vs Sampdoria have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Modena and Sampdoria?
Record (2 meetings): Modena 0W | Draws 1 | Sampdoria 1W.
What form are Modena and Sampdoria in?
Modena (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-L-D-W. Sampdoria (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-L-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Modena's attack at 1.14x the league average against Sampdoria's defence at 1.28x — combine the two and it projects 1.78 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Sampdoria's attack versus Modena's defence, projects 1.13 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (8.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Modena Win
51%
1.97
27%
3.71
22%
4.50
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
1 – 0
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.78
Modena xG
Total xG
2.91
1.13
Sampdoria xG
1.97
51%
Home win
3.71
27%
Draw
4.50
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.72
42%
BTTS No
2.38
Clean Sheet
32%
3.09
17%
5.93
Win to Nil
16%
6.07
4%
26.69
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 6.2 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.7 | 11.0 | 6.2 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.7 | 9.8 | 5.5 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.1 | 5.8 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.3 | 2.6 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Modena vs Sampdoria?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.4%.
How many goals are Modena and Sampdoria expected to score?
The model projects 1.78 expected goals for Modena and 1.13 for Sampdoria, a combined total of 2.91.
How confident is the prediction model for Modena vs Sampdoria?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Modena come into this having played 44 games, going 12W 19D 13L for 1.25 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-L-D-W. It's still early in the season for Modena, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Sampdoria sit at 1.34 PPG from 44 outings (16W 11D 17L), a run that reads L-L-D-L-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Sampdoria, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Modena on 1.25 PPG, Sampdoria on 1.34. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Modena's home form reads 8W 6D 8L across 22 games on their own ground, a 1.36 PPG return.
Away from home, Sampdoria have taken 1.36 points per game from 22 outings (8W 6D 8L).
Goals in Recent Form
Modena are averaging 1.14 goals scored and 1.23 conceded per game recently; Sampdoria are on 1.30 scored and 1.34 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sampdoria in 61%.
Last 44 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Modena
Early Season
Sampdoria
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Modena and Sampdoria in coming into this match?
Modena have gone 12W 19D 13L in their last 44 games (1.25 PPG), while Sampdoria have gone 16W 11D 17L in their last 44 (1.34 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Modena at home or Sampdoria away?
Modena's home record (1.36 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Modena at home: 1.36 PPG; Sampdoria away: 1.36 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. They last met on 7 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Modena's record when hosting Sampdoria specifically: 0W 0D 3L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Modena
1
Draws
4
Sampdoria
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Modena and Sampdoria?
From 6 meetings on record, Modena have won 1, Sampdoria have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Modena and Sampdoria last play each other?
They last met on 7 February 2026, when Modena 1-2 Sampdoria.
Who has won more matches between Modena and Sampdoria?
Sampdoria have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Modena see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches.
Sampdoria are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Modena 46%, Sampdoria 68% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 41% (Modena) and 54% (Sampdoria).
On the defensive side: Modena keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Modena have failed to score in 32% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Modena home games / Sampdoria away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Modena play Sampdoria?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 46% of Modena's games and 68% of Sampdoria's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Modena vs Sampdoria usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 41% of Modena's recent games and 54% of Sampdoria's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Modena and Sampdoria tend to score early?
Modena have had a goal before half-time in 59% of their recent matches, Sampdoria in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Sampdoria cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Modena.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sampdoria beat Modena 1-3 at Stadio Alberto Braglia, Regular Season - 7, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Modena 1.78 xG and Sampdoria 1.13 xG, a combined 2.91. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Sampdoria outscored their 1.13 projection by 1.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Modena attack 1.14 / defence 0.90 against Sampdoria attack 1.15 / defence 1.28, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Modena 51% | Draw 27% | Sampdoria 22%, with Modena to win its most likely call at 51%. Instead the game produced a Sampdoria win, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 33% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Modena 46%, Sampdoria 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Modena's trading profile (44 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Sampdoria's trading profile (44 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Modena 1.25 PPG, Sampdoria 1.34 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sampdoria win broke the near-deadlock. Modena (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.05 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Sampdoria (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.41 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.