Modena vs Padova – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Modena at 45% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Modena vs Padova encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Modena host Padova at Stadio Alberto Braglia in Serie B, Regular Season - 14. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 28 November 2026 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Modena — All Games: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Serie B outings this season, averaging 2.00 points per game. Last five: W L W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Modena, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Modena's form when playing at home: 6W 1D 3L across 10 games at Stadio Alberto Braglia this term (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Padova stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 Serie B matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L L W W D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Padova, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Padova's form when playing away from home: 3W 1D 6L across 10 road games this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
On current form, Modena have the edge — a 0.60 PPG advantage (2.00 vs 1.40) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Modena, 2 for Padova and 0 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 28 Feb 2026, ended 1–2 with Padova winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Modena trading profile (48 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games).
Padova trading profile (48 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Modena 54% versus Padova 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Modena 54% | Padova 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Modena 1.44 xG and Padova 0.99 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Modena attack 1.194 / defence 0.926 | Padova attack 0.868 / defence 0.916. League average goals — home 1.312 / away 1.232. Data: 48 Modena games / 48 Padova games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Modena 45% | Draw 30% | Padova 24%. Fair-value odds: Modena 2.22 | Draw 3.33 | Padova 4.17. Modena hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.43. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.43 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Modena as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Modena offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.43 combined xG gives a 44% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Modena 60% | Padova 50%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Modena vs Padova | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Stadio Alberto Braglia • Kick-off: Saturday 28 Nov 2026, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Modena 45% | Draw 30% | Padova 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 50% | xG Modena 1.44 / Padova 0.99 • Poisson strength factors: Modena attack 1.194 / def 0.926 | Padova attack 0.868 / def 0.916 | league avg home 1.312 / away 1.232 • Poisson stance: Modena (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.44
Modena xG
Expected Goals
0.99
Padova xG
50%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Modena vs Padova kick off?
Modena vs Padova is scheduled to kick off at 14:00 on Saturday 28 November 2026 at Stadio Alberto Braglia.
Where is Modena vs Padova being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Alberto Braglia.
What competition is Modena vs Padova part of?
Modena vs Padova is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Modena vs Padova?
Our statistical model gives Modena a 45% chance of winning, Padova a 24% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Modena the favourite.
Will both teams score in Modena vs Padova?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Modena and Padova will score (BTTS).
Will Modena vs Padova have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Modena and Padova?
Record (2 meetings): Modena 0W | Draws 0 | Padova 2W.
What form are Modena and Padova in?
Modena (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-W-W-D. Padova (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-L-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Modena's attacking strength (1.19x league average) is weighed against Padova's defensive record (0.92x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.44. The same calculation in reverse, Padova's attack versus Modena's defence, projects 0.99 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 48/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.2%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.0%), 0-0 (10.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Modena Win
45%
2.20
30%
3.29
24%
4.14
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
2 – 0
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.44
Modena xG
Total xG
2.43
0.99
Padova xG
2.20
45%
Home win
3.29
30%
Draw
4.14
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.01
50%
BTTS No
1.99
Clean Sheet
37%
2.69
24%
4.20
Win to Nil
17%
5.93
6%
17.41
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.8 | 8.8 | 4.3 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.7 | 12.6 | 6.2 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.1 | 9.0 | 4.5 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 4.3 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Modena vs Padova?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Modena and Padova expected to score?
The model projects 1.44 expected goals for Modena and 0.99 for Padova, a combined total of 2.43.
How confident is the prediction model for Modena vs Padova?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Modena's recent record stands at 20W 12D 16L from 48 games, a 1.50 PPG return, with W-L-W-W-D in the last five. The sample for Modena is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Padova, meanwhile, have gone 16W 12D 20L across 48 games — 1.25 PPG, with L-L-W-W-D in their last five. The sample for Padova is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Modena on 1.50 PPG, Padova on 1.25. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Modena have managed 12W 4D 8L from 24 games — 1.67 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Padova's away record stands at 8W 4D 12L across 24 trips, a 1.17 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Modena come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Modena are averaging 1.35 goals scored and 0.98 conceded per game recently; Padova are on 1.02 scored and 1.25 conceded.
Last 48 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Modena
Blended
Padova
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Modena and Padova in coming into this match?
Modena have gone 20W 12D 16L in their last 48 games (1.50 PPG), while Padova have gone 16W 12D 20L in their last 48 (1.25 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Modena at home or Padova away?
Modena's home record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Modena at home: 1.67 PPG; Padova away: 1.17 PPG.
Have Modena or Padova been keeping clean sheets recently?
Modena have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Padova in 27%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to January 2026. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. They last met on 28 February 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Modena
0
Draws
2
Padova
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Modena and Padova?
From 2 meetings on record, Modena have won 0, Padova have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Modena and Padova last play each other?
They last met on 28 February 2026, when Modena 1-2 Padova.
Who has won more matches between Modena and Padova?
Padova have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Modena are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Padova are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Modena 54%, Padova 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Modena) and 42% (Padova).
On the defensive side: Modena keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Padova in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Modena home games / Padova away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Modena play Padova?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Modena's recent matches and 46% of Padova's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Modena vs Padova usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 67% of Modena's recent games and 42% of Padova's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Modena and Padova tend to score early?
Modena have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Padova in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.