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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Modena and Cosenza share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Stadio Alberto Braglia, Regular Season - 28, as Modena and Cosenza drew 1-1 in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Modena 1.59 xG and Cosenza 0.86 xG, a combined 2.45. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Modena attack 1.05 / defence 0.94 against Cosenza attack 0.84 / defence 1.25, drawn from 65/65 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Modena 53% | Draw 28% | Cosenza 19%, with Modena to win its most likely call at 53%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Modena 42%, Cosenza 40%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Modena's trading profile (65 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.

Cosenza's trading profile (65 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Modena 1.25 PPG, Cosenza 1.11 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights