Modena 1-1 Mantova – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Modena at 37% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Modena vs Mantova encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Modena and Mantova meet at Alberto Braglia in Serie B, Regular Season - 10. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 31 October 2026 at 14:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Modena have collected 1.90 PPG across 10 Serie B outings this season: 6W 1D 3L. Last five: W W L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Modena, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Modena's home record at Alberto Braglia: 6W 1D 3L from 10 Serie B appearances (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game.
Mantova (all games): 5W 2D 3L across 10 Serie B outings this term — 1.70 points per game. Last five: D W L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Mantova, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Mantova's form when playing away from home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.90 vs 1.70 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record favours Modena, who have won 3 of the last 4 meetings against Mantova — a 1D 0W return for the visitors.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 21 Mar 2026, ended 2–1 with Modena winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Modena and goals. The home side's 3 wins from 4 meetings, combined with an average of 2.8 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading & In-Play
Modena — key trading statistics (47 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 44% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (home games).
Mantova — key trading statistics (47 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Modena 53% versus Mantova 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Modena 55% | Mantova 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Modena 1.35 xG and Mantova 1.30 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Modena attack 1.239 / defence 0.932 | Mantova attack 1.056 / defence 0.860. League average goals — home 1.269 / away 1.319. Data: 47 Modena games / 47 Mantova games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Modena 37% | Draw 28% | Mantova 35%. Fair-value odds: Modena 2.70 | Draw 3.57 | Mantova 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.65. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.65 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Modena are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Modena if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.65 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 49% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 2.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Modena 50% | Mantova 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Modena vs Mantova | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Alberto Braglia • Kick-off: Saturday 31 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Modena 37% | Draw 28% | Mantova 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 55% | xG Modena 1.35 / Mantova 1.30 • Poisson strength factors: Modena attack 1.239 / def 0.932 | Mantova attack 1.056 / def 0.860 | league avg home 1.269 / away 1.319 • Poisson stance: Modena (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.35
Modena xG
Expected Goals
1.30
Mantova xG
55%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Modena vs Mantova kick off?
Modena vs Mantova kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 31 October 2026 at Alberto Braglia.
What was the final score in Modena vs Mantova?
Modena 1 - 1 Mantova.
Where is Modena vs Mantova being played?
The match is being played at Alberto Braglia.
What competition is Modena vs Mantova part of?
Modena vs Mantova is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Modena vs Mantova?
Our statistical model gives Modena a 37% chance of winning, Mantova a 35% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Modena the favourite.
Will both teams score in Modena vs Mantova?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Modena and Mantova will score (BTTS).
Will Modena vs Mantova have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Modena and Mantova?
Record (4 meetings): Modena 3W | Draws 1 | Mantova 0W.
What form are Modena and Mantova in?
Modena (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-L-W-W. Mantova (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-W-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Modena's attack rating (1.24) and Mantova's defence rating (0.86), the model arrives at 1.35 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Mantova's attack (1.06x) against Modena's defence (0.93x) — and the away total comes out at 1.30.
These ratings are built from 47/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (8.7%), 2-1 (8.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Modena Win
37%
2.68
28%
3.59
35%
2.87
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.5%
Home win
0 – 1
9.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.35
Modena xG
Total xG
2.65
1.30
Mantova xG
2.68
37%
Home win
3.59
28%
Draw
2.87
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.83
45%
BTTS No
2.21
Clean Sheet
27%
3.66
26%
3.87
Win to Nil
10%
9.80
9%
11.11
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.1 | 9.2 | 5.9 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.5 | 12.4 | 8.0 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 8.4 | 5.4 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 3.8 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Modena vs Mantova?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Modena and Mantova expected to score?
The model projects 1.35 expected goals for Modena and 1.30 for Mantova, a combined total of 2.65.
How confident is the prediction model for Modena vs Mantova?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 47 outings, Modena have picked up 1.51 PPG on a 20W 11D 16L record — W-W-L-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Modena is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Mantova's form line: 18W 9D 20L from 47 games, 1.34 PPG, last five D-W-L-W-L. The sample for Mantova is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.51 PPG for Modena against 1.34 for Mantova. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Modena have posted 1.70 PPG from 23 outings (12W 3D 8L).
On the road, Mantova have gone 7W 5D 11L from 23 away games — 1.13 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Modena come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Modena are averaging 1.36 goals scored and 0.98 conceded per game recently; Mantova are on 1.26 scored and 1.43 conceded.
Last 47 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Modena
Blended
Mantova
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Modena and Mantova in coming into this match?
Modena have gone 20W 11D 16L in their last 47 games (1.51 PPG), while Mantova have gone 18W 9D 20L in their last 47 (1.34 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Modena at home or Mantova away?
Modena's home record (1.70 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Modena at home: 1.70 PPG; Mantova away: 1.13 PPG.
Have Modena or Mantova been keeping clean sheets recently?
Modena have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Mantova in 23%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 5 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. The two were last together as recently as 31 October 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Modena have gone 2W 1D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Mantova — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
3
Modena
2
Draws
0
Mantova
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Modena and Mantova?
From 5 meetings on record, Modena have won 3, Mantova have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Modena and Mantova last play each other?
They last met on 31 October 2026, when Modena 1-1 Mantova.
Who has won more matches between Modena and Mantova?
Modena have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Modena are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Mantova are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Modena 52%, Mantova 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 70% for Modena and 52% for Mantova. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 4% and 22% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Modena keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches; Mantova in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Modena home games / Mantova away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Modena play Mantova?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Modena's recent matches and 44% of Mantova's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Modena vs Mantova usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 70% of Modena's matches and 52% of Mantova's.
Do Modena and Mantova tend to score early?
Modena have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Mantova in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Modena and Mantova share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Alberto Braglia, Regular Season - 10, as Modena and Mantova drew 1-1 in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Modena 1.35 xG and Mantova 1.30 xG, a combined 2.65. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Modena attack 1.24 / defence 0.93 against Mantova attack 1.06 / defence 0.86, drawn from 47/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Modena 37% | Draw 28% | Mantova 35%, with Modena to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Modena 55%, Mantova 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Modena's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Mantova's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Modena 1.51 PPG, Mantova 1.34 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.