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Prediction vindicated as Modena edge out Mantova 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Modena beat Mantova 2-1 at Stadio Alberto Braglia, Regular Season - 32, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Modena 1.38 xG and Mantova 0.86 xG, a combined 2.24. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Modena attack 0.91 / defence 0.89 against Mantova attack 0.88 / defence 1.11, drawn from 68/69 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Modena 47% | Draw 30% | Mantova 22%, with Modena to win its most likely call at 47%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Modena 48%, Mantova 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Modena's trading profile (68 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.

Mantova's trading profile (68 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Modena 1.35 PPG, Mantova 1.13 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Modena win broke the near-deadlock.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights