Modena vs Juve Stabia – Pre-Match Analysis

Poisson rates Modena at 44% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Modena vs Juve Stabia encounter.

✍️ Match Preview

Full Analysis

Stadio Alberto Braglia plays host to Modena versus Juve Stabia in Serie B, Regular Season - 12. Kick-off: Saturday 21 November 2026 at 14:00 UTC.

Form

Modena (all games): 6W 2D 2L across 10 Serie B fixtures this term — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W L W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Modena, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Modena's form when playing at home: 6W 1D 3L across 10 games at Stadio Alberto Braglia this term (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Juve Stabia have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Serie B outings this season: 3W 4D 3L. Last five: D W W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Juve Stabia, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Juve Stabia away from home this season: 3W 5D 2L from 10 away games — 1.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

The points-per-game gap of 0.70 in Modena's favour (2.00 vs 1.30) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.

In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Modena have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Juve Stabia in 70%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.

H2H History

Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 5 meetings: Modena 3W, Juve Stabia 2W, 0D.

The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 12 May 2026, ended 0–1 with Juve Stabia winning.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

Trading Data

Modena goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (49 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games).

Juve Stabia goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (49 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Modena 53% versus Juve Stabia 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Modena 53% | Juve Stabia 45%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Modena 1.45 xG and Juve Stabia 1.08 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Modena attack 1.194 / defence 0.926 | Juve Stabia attack 0.947 / defence 0.927. League average goals — home 1.312 / away 1.232. Data: 48 Modena games / 48 Juve Stabia games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Modena 44% | Draw 30% | Juve Stabia 26%. Fair-value odds: Modena 2.27 | Draw 3.33 | Juve Stabia 3.85. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.53. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.53 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, Modena are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Modena if the outright odds are short.

The Poisson model projects 2.53 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 46% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.

Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Modena 60% | Juve Stabia 70% BTTS from recent games.

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