Modena vs Hellas Verona – Pre-Match Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Modena at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Modena vs Hellas Verona fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie B encounter, Regular Season - 6 sees Hellas Verona travel to Stadio Alberto Braglia to take on Modena. The game is scheduled for Saturday 10 October 2026, 13:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Modena stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 Serie B matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L L W W L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Modena have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Modena at Stadio Alberto Braglia this season: 4W 1D 5L from 10 home games — 1.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
Hellas Verona — All Games: 1W 4D 5L from 10 Serie B fixtures this season — 0.70 PPG. Last five: D L L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Hellas Verona have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Hellas Verona away from home this season: 1W 4D 5L from 10 away games — 0.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Modena 1.10 PPG, Hellas Verona 0.70 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
In-Play Profile
Modena in-play tendencies (41 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 44% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (home games).
Hellas Verona in-play tendencies (41 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (away games); they fail to score in 49% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Modena 49% versus Hellas Verona 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Modena 51% | Hellas Verona 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Modena 1.30 xG and Hellas Verona 0.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Modena attack 0.863 / defence 0.966 | Hellas Verona attack 0.858 / defence 1.086. League average goals — home 1.391 / away 1.158. Data: 41 Modena games / 3 Hellas Verona games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Modena 44% | Draw 28% | Hellas Verona 27%. Fair-value odds: Modena 2.27 | Draw 3.57 | Hellas Verona 3.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.26. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.26 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Modena as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Modena offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.26 combined xG gives a 39% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 45% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Modena 50% | Hellas Verona 60%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Modena vs Hellas Verona | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Stadio Alberto Braglia • Kick-off: Saturday 10 Oct 2026, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Modena 44% | Draw 28% | Hellas Verona 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 45% | xG Modena 1.30 / Hellas Verona 0.96 • Poisson strength factors: Modena attack 0.863 / def 0.966 | Hellas Verona attack 0.858 / def 1.086 | league avg home 1.391 / away 1.158 • Poisson stance: Modena (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.30
Modena xG
Expected Goals
0.96
Hellas Verona xG
45%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Modena vs Hellas Verona kick off?
Modena vs Hellas Verona is scheduled to kick off at 13:00 on Saturday 10 October 2026 at Stadio Alberto Braglia.
Where is Modena vs Hellas Verona being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Alberto Braglia.
What competition is Modena vs Hellas Verona part of?
Modena vs Hellas Verona is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Modena vs Hellas Verona?
Our statistical model gives Modena a 44% chance of winning, Hellas Verona a 27% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Modena the favourite.
Will both teams score in Modena vs Hellas Verona?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Modena and Hellas Verona will score (BTTS).
Will Modena vs Hellas Verona have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Modena and Hellas Verona?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Modena and Hellas Verona in?
Modena (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-L-W-W-L. Hellas Verona (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-L-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Modena's attack rating (0.86) and Hellas Verona's defence rating (1.09), the model arrives at 1.30 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Hellas Verona's attack versus Modena's defence, projects 0.96 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 41/3 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.1%), 1-0 (11.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Modena Win
44%
2.25
28%
3.56
27%
3.65
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
0 – 0
10.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.30
Modena xG
Total xG
2.26
0.96
Hellas Verona xG
2.25
44%
Home win
3.56
28%
Draw
3.65
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.23
55%
BTTS No
1.82
Clean Sheet
38%
2.61
27%
3.68
Win to Nil
17%
5.86
7%
13.44
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.4 | 10.0 | 4.8 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.6 | 13.0 | 6.2 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.8 | 8.5 | 4.1 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 3.7 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Modena vs Hellas Verona?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Modena and Hellas Verona expected to score?
The model projects 1.30 expected goals for Modena and 0.96 for Hellas Verona, a combined total of 2.26.
How confident is the prediction model for Modena vs Hellas Verona?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 41 outings, Modena have picked up 1.41 PPG on a 16W 10D 15L record — L-L-W-W-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Modena, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Hellas Verona's form line: 4W 13D 24L from 41 games, 0.61 PPG, last five D-L-L-D-W. It's still early in the season for Hellas Verona, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Modena are the form team by 0.80 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Hellas Verona.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Modena have posted 1.50 PPG from 20 outings (9W 3D 8L).
On the road, Hellas Verona have gone 2W 8D 10L from 20 away games — 0.70 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Modena come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Modena are averaging 1.27 goals scored and 0.95 conceded per game recently; Hellas Verona are on 0.78 scored and 1.56 conceded.
Last 41 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Modena
Early Season
Hellas Verona
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Modena and Hellas Verona in coming into this match?
Modena have gone 16W 10D 15L in their last 41 games (1.41 PPG), while Hellas Verona have gone 4W 13D 24L in their last 41 (0.61 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Modena at home or Hellas Verona away?
Modena's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Modena at home: 1.50 PPG; Hellas Verona away: 0.70 PPG.
Have Modena or Hellas Verona been keeping clean sheets recently?
Modena have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Hellas Verona in 17%.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Modena are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 45% of the time.
Hellas Verona are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Modena 50%, Hellas Verona 55% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 65% for Modena and 55% for Hellas Verona. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 0% and 20% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Modena keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Hellas Verona in 45%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Modena home games / Hellas Verona away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Modena play Hellas Verona?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Modena's recent matches and 55% of Hellas Verona's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Modena vs Hellas Verona usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 65% of Modena's matches and 55% of Hellas Verona's.
Do Modena and Hellas Verona tend to score early?
Modena have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Hellas Verona in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.