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Prediction vindicated as Frosinone edge out Modena 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Frosinone beat Modena 1-2 at Stadio Alberto Braglia, Regular Season - 35, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Modena 1.23 xG and Frosinone 1.39 xG, a combined 2.62. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Modena attack 0.96 / defence 0.91 against Frosinone attack 1.40 / defence 0.93, drawn from 72/72 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Modena 31% | Draw 30% | Frosinone 39%, with Frosinone to win its most likely call at 39%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Modena 50%, Frosinone 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Modena's trading profile (72 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.

Frosinone's trading profile (72 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Modena 1.35 PPG, Frosinone 1.56 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Frosinone win broke the near-deadlock. Modena (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.06 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights