Modena 0-1 Cittadella – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Modena at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Modena vs Cittadella fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie B clash, Regular Season - 4 as Modena welcome Cittadella to Stadio Alberto Braglia. Kick-off is set for Saturday 31 August 2024 at 19:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Modena stand at 3W 4D 3L from 10 Serie B matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D W L W D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Modena have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Modena's home record at Stadio Alberto Braglia: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Serie B appearances (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Across all Serie B games this season, Cittadella have recorded 2W 5D 3L from 10 outings — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D L L W D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Cittadella have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Serie B this season, Cittadella have posted 2W 3D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.30 PPG (Modena) versus 1.10 (Cittadella). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Modena, 0 for Cittadella and 4 shared spoils from 4 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.0 per contest from 4 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 16 Mar 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Modena in-play tendencies (41 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 55% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games).
Cittadella in-play tendencies (41 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Modena 61% versus Cittadella 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Modena 44% | Cittadella 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Modena 1.26 xG and Cittadella 0.99 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Modena attack 1.021 / defence 1.026 | Cittadella attack 0.928 / defence 0.938. League average goals — home 1.317 / away 1.039. Data: 41 Modena games / 41 Cittadella games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Modena 41% | Draw 31% | Cittadella 28%. Fair-value odds: Modena 2.44 | Draw 3.23 | Cittadella 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.25. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.25 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Modena are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Modena offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.25 combined xG gives a 39% probability to Under 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 1.0 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 47% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Modena 50% | Cittadella 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Modena vs Cittadella | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Stadio Alberto Braglia • Kick-off: Saturday 31 Aug 2024, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Modena 41% | Draw 31% | Cittadella 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 47% | xG Modena 1.26 / Cittadella 0.99 • Poisson strength factors: Modena attack 1.021 / def 1.026 | Cittadella attack 0.928 / def 0.938 | league avg home 1.317 / away 1.039 • Poisson stance: Modena (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.26
Modena xG
Expected Goals
0.99
Cittadella xG
47%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Modena vs Cittadella kick off?
Modena vs Cittadella kicked off at 19:30 on Saturday 31 August 2024 at Stadio Alberto Braglia.
What was the final score in Modena vs Cittadella?
Modena 0 - 1 Cittadella.
Where is Modena vs Cittadella being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Alberto Braglia.
What competition is Modena vs Cittadella part of?
Modena vs Cittadella is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Modena vs Cittadella?
Our statistical model gives Modena a 41% chance of winning, Cittadella a 28% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Modena the favourite.
Will both teams score in Modena vs Cittadella?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Modena and Cittadella will score (BTTS).
Will Modena vs Cittadella have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Modena and Cittadella?
Record (4 meetings): Modena 0W | Draws 4 | Cittadella 0W.
What form are Modena and Cittadella in?
Modena (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-L-W-D. Cittadella (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-L-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Modena's attack at 1.02x the league average against Cittadella's defence at 0.94x — combine the two and it projects 1.26 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Cittadella's attack versus Modena's defence, projects 0.99 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 41/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (12.2%), 1-0 (11.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Modena Win
41%
2.44
31%
3.18
28%
3.63
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
0 – 0
10.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.26
Modena xG
Total xG
2.25
0.99
Cittadella xG
2.44
41%
Home win
3.18
31%
Draw
3.63
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.15
53%
BTTS No
1.87
Clean Sheet
37%
2.69
28%
3.53
Win to Nil
15%
6.55
8%
12.82
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.5 | 10.4 | 5.2 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.3 | 13.1 | 6.5 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.4 | 8.3 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 3.5 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Modena vs Cittadella?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Modena and Cittadella expected to score?
The model projects 1.26 expected goals for Modena and 0.99 for Cittadella, a combined total of 2.25.
How confident is the prediction model for Modena vs Cittadella?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 41 outings, Modena have picked up 1.24 PPG on a 11W 18D 12L record — D-W-L-W-D across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Modena, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Cittadella's form line: 12W 14D 15L from 41 games, 1.22 PPG, last five D-L-L-W-D. It's still early in the season for Cittadella, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Modena on 1.24 PPG, Cittadella on 1.22. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Modena have posted 1.35 PPG from 20 outings (7W 6D 7L).
On the road, Cittadella have gone 5W 7D 8L from 20 away games — 1.10 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Modena are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.24 conceded per game recently; Cittadella are on 1.05 scored and 1.22 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Modena have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Last 41 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Modena
Early Season
Cittadella
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Modena and Cittadella in coming into this match?
Modena have gone 11W 18D 12L in their last 41 games (1.24 PPG), while Cittadella have gone 12W 14D 15L in their last 41 (1.22 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Modena at home or Cittadella away?
Modena's home record (1.35 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Modena at home: 1.35 PPG; Cittadella away: 1.10 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 22 February 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Modena's record when hosting Cittadella specifically: 0W 2D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Modena
4
Draws
1
Cittadella
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Modena and Cittadella?
From 6 meetings on record, Modena have won 1, Cittadella have won 1, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Modena and Cittadella last play each other?
They last met on 22 February 2025, when Cittadella 0-2 Modena.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Modena see a goal before the break in 55% of their matches.
Cittadella are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Modena 50%, Cittadella 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Modena) and 35% (Cittadella).
On the defensive side: Modena keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Cittadella in 35%; Modena have failed to score in 30% of games; Cittadella in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Modena home games / Cittadella away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Modena play Cittadella?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Modena's recent matches and 50% of Cittadella's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Modena vs Cittadella usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Modena's recent games and 35% of Cittadella's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Modena and Cittadella tend to score early?
Modena have had a goal before half-time in 55% of their recent matches, Cittadella in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Cittadella defy the odds to beat Modena 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cittadella beat Modena 0-1 at Stadio Alberto Braglia, Regular Season - 4, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Modena 1.26 xG and Cittadella 0.99 xG, a combined 2.25. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Modena fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Modena attack 1.02 / defence 1.03 against Cittadella attack 0.93 / defence 0.94, drawn from 41/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Modena 41% | Draw 31% | Cittadella 28%, with Modena to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Cittadella win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 67% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Modena 44%, Cittadella 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Modena's trading profile (41 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Cittadella's trading profile (41 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Modena 1.24 PPG, Cittadella 1.22 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Cittadella win broke the near-deadlock. Modena (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.05 scoring average — below par going forward. Cittadella (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.25 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.