Modena vs Carrarese – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Modena at 53% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Modena vs Carrarese encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadio Alberto Braglia plays host to Modena versus Carrarese in Serie B, Regular Season - 22. Kick-off: Saturday 23 January 2027 at 14:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Modena have collected 2.00 PPG across 10 Serie B outings this season: 6W 2D 2L. Last five: W L W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Modena, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stadio Alberto Braglia, Modena have gone 6W 1D 3L this season (10 games, 1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Carrarese (all games): 3W 1D 6L across 10 Serie B outings this term — 1.00 points per game. Last five: W W L W L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Carrarese, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Serie B this season, Carrarese have posted 2W 2D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.80 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Form favours the hosts. Modena's 2.00 PPG return is 1.00 points per game ahead of Carrarese's 1.00 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 5 head-to-head meetings have produced 2 wins for Modena, 2 for Carrarese and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 17 Oct 2026, ended 1–2 with Carrarese winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Modena goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (48 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games).
Carrarese goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (48 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Modena 54% versus Carrarese 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Modena 54% | Carrarese 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Modena 1.65 xG and Carrarese 0.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Modena attack 1.193 / defence 0.927 | Carrarese attack 0.815 / defence 1.055. League average goals — home 1.312 / away 1.233. Data: 48 Modena games / 48 Carrarese games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Modena 53% | Draw 28% | Carrarese 19%. Fair-value odds: Modena 1.89 | Draw 3.57 | Carrarese 5.26. Modena hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.58. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.58 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Modena at 53% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Modena if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.58 combined xG gives a 48% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates are neutral: Modena 60% | Carrarese 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Modena vs Carrarese | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Stadio Alberto Braglia • Kick-off: Saturday 23 Jan 2027, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Modena 53% | Draw 28% | Carrarese 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 51% | xG Modena 1.65 / Carrarese 0.93 • Poisson strength factors: Modena attack 1.193 / def 0.927 | Carrarese attack 0.815 / def 1.055 | league avg home 1.312 / away 1.233 • Poisson stance: Modena (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.65
Modena xG
Expected Goals
0.93
Carrarese xG
51%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Modena vs Carrarese kick off?
Modena vs Carrarese is scheduled to kick off at 14:00 on Saturday 23 January 2027 at Stadio Alberto Braglia.
Where is Modena vs Carrarese being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Alberto Braglia.
What competition is Modena vs Carrarese part of?
Modena vs Carrarese is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Modena vs Carrarese?
Our statistical model gives Modena a 53% chance of winning, Carrarese a 19% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Modena the favourite.
Will both teams score in Modena vs Carrarese?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Modena and Carrarese will score (BTTS).
Will Modena vs Carrarese have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Modena and Carrarese?
Record (5 meetings): Modena 2W | Draws 1 | Carrarese 2W.
What form are Modena and Carrarese in?
Modena (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-W-W-D. Carrarese (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Modena's attack rating (1.19) and Carrarese's defence rating (1.05), the model arrives at 1.65 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Carrarese's attack (0.81x) against Modena's defence (0.93x) — and the away total comes out at 0.93.
These ratings are built from 48/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.1%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.0%), 2-0 (10.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Modena Win
53%
1.90
28%
3.57
19%
5.14
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
2 – 0
10.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.65
Modena xG
Total xG
2.58
0.93
Carrarese xG
1.90
53%
Home win
3.57
28%
Draw
5.14
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.97
49%
BTTS No
2.03
Clean Sheet
39%
2.54
19%
5.21
Win to Nil
21%
4.83
4%
26.74
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.6 | 7.0 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 12.5 | 11.6 | 5.4 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.3 | 9.6 | 4.5 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.7 | 5.3 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.3 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Modena vs Carrarese?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Modena and Carrarese expected to score?
The model projects 1.65 expected goals for Modena and 0.93 for Carrarese, a combined total of 2.58.
How confident is the prediction model for Modena vs Carrarese?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Modena come into this having played 48 games, going 20W 12D 16L for 1.50 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-W-W-D. The sample for Modena is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Carrarese sit at 1.12 PPG from 48 outings (13W 15D 20L), a run that reads W-W-L-W-L across their last five. The sample for Carrarese is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.50 PPG for Modena against 1.12 for Carrarese. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Modena's home form reads 12W 4D 8L across 24 games on their own ground, a 1.67 PPG return.
Away from home, Carrarese have taken 0.79 points per game from 24 outings (4W 7D 13L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Modena come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Modena are averaging 1.35 goals scored and 0.98 conceded per game recently; Carrarese are on 1.17 scored and 1.35 conceded.
Last 48 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Modena
Blended
Carrarese
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Modena and Carrarese in coming into this match?
Modena have gone 20W 12D 16L in their last 48 games (1.50 PPG), while Carrarese have gone 13W 15D 20L in their last 48 (1.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Modena at home or Carrarese away?
Modena's home record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Modena at home: 1.67 PPG; Carrarese away: 0.79 PPG.
Have Modena or Carrarese been keeping clean sheets recently?
Modena have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Carrarese in 27%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 5 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. The two were last together as recently as 17 October 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Modena have gone 2W 0D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Carrarese — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
2
Modena
1
Draws
2
Carrarese
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Modena and Carrarese?
From 5 meetings on record, Modena have won 2, Carrarese have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Modena and Carrarese last play each other?
They last met on 17 October 2026, when Carrarese 2-1 Modena.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Modena are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Carrarese are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Modena 54%, Carrarese 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Modena and 54% for Carrarese. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 4% and 21% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Modena keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Carrarese in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Modena home games / Carrarese away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Modena play Carrarese?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 54% of Modena's games and 58% of Carrarese's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Modena vs Carrarese usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Modena's matches and 54% of Carrarese's.
Do Modena and Carrarese tend to score early?
Modena have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Carrarese in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.
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