Modena vs Carrarese – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Modena at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Modena vs Carrarese fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadio Alberto Braglia plays host to Modena versus Carrarese in Serie B, Regular Season - 22. Kick-off: Saturday 23 January 2027 at 14:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Modena have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Serie B outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: L W W L D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Modena have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Stadio Alberto Braglia, Modena have gone 4W 1D 5L this season (10 games, 1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
Carrarese (all games): 1W 3D 6L across 10 Serie B outings this term — 0.60 points per game. Last five: L L D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Carrarese have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Serie B this season, Carrarese have posted 1W 3D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.60 PPG. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Form favours the hosts. Modena's 1.10 PPG return is 0.50 points per game ahead of Carrarese's 0.60 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 4 head-to-head meetings have produced 2 wins for Modena, 1 for Carrarese and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.8 per game from 4 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 14 Feb 2026, ended 2–0 with Modena winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.8 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Modena goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (42 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 44% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games).
Carrarese goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (42 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Modena 50% versus Carrarese 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Modena 50% | Carrarese 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Modena 1.19 xG and Carrarese 0.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Modena attack 0.873 / defence 0.968 | Carrarese attack 0.827 / defence 0.991. League average goals — home 1.375 / away 1.161. Data: 42 Modena games / 42 Carrarese games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Modena 42% | Draw 29% | Carrarese 29%. Fair-value odds: Modena 2.38 | Draw 3.45 | Carrarese 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.12. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.12 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Modena at 42% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Modena if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.12 combined xG gives a 36% probability to Under 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 1.8 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 42%. Form rates corroborate: Modena 50% | Carrarese 40% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Modena vs Carrarese | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Stadio Alberto Braglia • Kick-off: Saturday 23 Jan 2027, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Modena 42% | Draw 29% | Carrarese 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 42% | xG Modena 1.19 / Carrarese 0.93 • Poisson strength factors: Modena attack 0.873 / def 0.968 | Carrarese attack 0.827 / def 0.991 | league avg home 1.375 / away 1.161 • Poisson stance: Modena (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.19
Modena xG
Expected Goals
0.93
Carrarese xG
42%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Modena vs Carrarese kick off?
Modena vs Carrarese is scheduled to kick off at 14:00 on Saturday 23 January 2027 at Stadio Alberto Braglia.
Where is Modena vs Carrarese being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Alberto Braglia.
What competition is Modena vs Carrarese part of?
Modena vs Carrarese is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Modena vs Carrarese?
Our statistical model gives Modena a 42% chance of winning, Carrarese a 29% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Modena the favourite.
Will both teams score in Modena vs Carrarese?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Modena and Carrarese will score (BTTS).
Will Modena vs Carrarese have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Modena and Carrarese?
Record (4 meetings): Modena 2W | Draws 1 | Carrarese 1W.
What form are Modena and Carrarese in?
Modena (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-W-L-D. Carrarese (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Modena's attack rating (0.87) and Carrarese's defence rating (0.99), the model arrives at 1.19 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Carrarese's attack (0.83x) against Modena's defence (0.97x) — and the away total comes out at 0.93.
These ratings are built from 42/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.7%), 1-0 (12.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Modena Win
42%
2.39
29%
3.39
29%
3.49
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
0 – 0
12.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.19
Modena xG
Total xG
2.12
0.93
Carrarese xG
2.39
42%
Home win
3.39
29%
Draw
3.49
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.38
58%
BTTS No
1.73
Clean Sheet
39%
2.53
30%
3.28
Win to Nil
17%
6.05
9%
11.46
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.0 | 11.2 | 5.2 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.3 | 13.3 | 6.2 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.5 | 7.9 | 3.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 3.4 | 3.1 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Modena vs Carrarese?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Modena and Carrarese expected to score?
The model projects 1.19 expected goals for Modena and 0.93 for Carrarese, a combined total of 2.12.
How confident is the prediction model for Modena vs Carrarese?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Modena come into this having played 42 games, going 16W 11D 15L for 1.40 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-W-L-D. It's still early in the season for Modena, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Carrarese sit at 1.07 PPG from 42 outings (10W 15D 17L), a run that reads L-L-D-L-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Carrarese, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.40 PPG for Modena against 1.07 for Carrarese. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Modena's home form reads 9W 4D 8L across 21 games on their own ground, a 1.48 PPG return.
Away from home, Carrarese have taken 0.76 points per game from 21 outings (3W 7D 11L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Modena come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Modena are averaging 1.26 goals scored and 0.95 conceded per game recently; Carrarese are on 1.17 scored and 1.36 conceded.
Last 42 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Modena
Early Season
Carrarese
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Modena and Carrarese in coming into this match?
Modena have gone 16W 11D 15L in their last 42 games (1.40 PPG), while Carrarese have gone 10W 15D 17L in their last 42 (1.07 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Modena at home or Carrarese away?
Modena's home record (1.48 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Modena at home: 1.48 PPG; Carrarese away: 0.76 PPG.
Have Modena or Carrarese been keeping clean sheets recently?
Modena have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Carrarese in 29%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. They last met on 14 February 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Modena have gone 2W 0D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Carrarese — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Modena
1
Draws
1
Carrarese
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Modena and Carrarese?
From 4 meetings on record, Modena have won 2, Carrarese have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Modena and Carrarese last play each other?
They last met on 14 February 2026, when Modena 2-0 Carrarese.
Who has won more matches between Modena and Carrarese?
Modena have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Modena are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
Carrarese are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Modena 52%, Carrarese 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (Modena) and 52% (Carrarese). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 0% and 24% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Modena keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Carrarese in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Modena home games / Carrarese away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Modena play Carrarese?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 52% of Modena's games and 62% of Carrarese's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Modena vs Carrarese usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of Modena's matches and 52% of Carrarese's.
Do Modena and Carrarese tend to score early?
Modena have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Carrarese in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.