Modena 1-1 Benevento – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Benevento at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Modena vs Benevento fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Modena host Benevento at Stadio Alberto Braglia in Serie B, Regular Season - 18. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 18 December 2022 at 13:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Modena — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Serie B outings this season, averaging 1.50 points per game. Last five: D W W D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.80 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Modena, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Modena have posted 3W 2D 3L at Stadio Alberto Braglia — 1.38 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.75 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 62% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Benevento stand at 3W 4D 3L from 10 Serie B matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W D L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Benevento, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Benevento's away record: 4W 3D 3L from 10 road trips in Serie B this season (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Modena at 1.50 PPG versus Benevento's 1.30. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Trading Patterns
Modena in-play and half-time data (17 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
Benevento in-play and half-time data (17 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Modena 65% versus Benevento 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Modena 59% | Benevento 29%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Modena 1.17 xG and Benevento 1.41 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Modena attack 1.127 / defence 1.264 | Benevento attack 1.054 / defence 0.900. League average goals — home 1.157 / away 1.058. Data: 17 Modena games / 55 Benevento games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Modena 29% | Draw 31% | Benevento 40%. Fair-value odds: Modena 3.45 | Draw 3.23 | Benevento 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.58. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.58 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Benevento at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Benevento offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.58 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 48% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Modena 62% | Benevento 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Modena vs Benevento | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Stadio Alberto Braglia • Kick-off: Sunday 18 Dec 2022, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Modena 29% | Draw 31% | Benevento 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 55% | xG Modena 1.17 / Benevento 1.41 • Poisson strength factors: Modena attack 1.127 / def 1.264 | Benevento attack 1.054 / def 0.900 | league avg home 1.157 / away 1.058 • Poisson stance: Benevento (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.17
Modena xG
Expected Goals
1.41
Benevento xG
55%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Modena vs Benevento kick off?
Modena vs Benevento kicked off at 13:00 on Sunday 18 December 2022 at Stadio Alberto Braglia.
What was the final score in Modena vs Benevento?
Modena 1 - 1 Benevento.
Where is Modena vs Benevento being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Alberto Braglia.
What competition is Modena vs Benevento part of?
Modena vs Benevento is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Modena vs Benevento?
Our statistical model gives Modena a 29% chance of winning, Benevento a 40% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Benevento the favourite.
Will both teams score in Modena vs Benevento?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Modena and Benevento will score (BTTS).
Will Modena vs Benevento have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Modena and Benevento?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Modena and Benevento in?
Modena (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-W-W-D-L. Benevento (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-D-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Modena's attacking strength (1.13x league average) is weighed against Benevento's defensive record (0.90x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.17. The same calculation in reverse, Benevento's attack versus Modena's defence, projects 1.41 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 17/55 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.2%), 0-1 (9.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Benevento Win
29%
3.45
31%
3.22
40%
2.50
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.7%
Away win
1 – 0
8.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.17
Modena xG
Total xG
2.58
1.41
Benevento xG
3.45
29%
Home win
3.22
31%
Draw
2.50
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.83
45%
BTTS No
2.20
Clean Sheet
24%
4.09
31%
3.23
Win to Nil
7%
14.13
12%
8.08
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.6 | 10.7 | 7.5 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.9 | 12.5 | 8.8 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.2 | 7.3 | 5.2 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 2.9 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Modena vs Benevento?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Modena and Benevento expected to score?
The model projects 1.17 expected goals for Modena and 1.41 for Benevento, a combined total of 2.58.
How confident is the prediction model for Modena vs Benevento?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Modena's recent record stands at 6W 3D 8L from 17 games, a 1.24 PPG return, with D-W-W-D-L in the last five. The sample for Modena is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Benevento, meanwhile, have gone 5W 6D 6L across 17 games — 1.24 PPG, with W-D-L-W-W in their last five. The sample for Benevento is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Modena on 1.24 PPG, Benevento on 1.24. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Modena have managed 3W 2D 3L from 8 games — 1.38 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Benevento's away record stands at 3W 3D 2L across 8 trips, a 1.50 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Modena are averaging 1.47 goals scored and 1.59 conceded per game recently; Benevento are on 0.94 scored and 1.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Modena have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games.
Last 17 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Modena
Blended
Benevento
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Modena and Benevento in coming into this match?
Modena have gone 6W 3D 8L in their last 17 games (1.24 PPG), while Benevento have gone 5W 6D 6L in their last 17 (1.24 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Modena at home or Benevento away?
Benevento's away record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Modena at home: 1.38 PPG; Benevento away: 1.50 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
3 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. The two were last together as recently as 22 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Last 3 Meetings
1
Modena
1
Draws
1
Benevento
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Modena and Benevento?
From 3 meetings on record, Modena have won 1, Benevento have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Modena and Benevento last play each other?
They last met on 22 August 2026, when Benevento 1-2 Modena.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Modena are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Benevento are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Modena 62%, Benevento 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Modena) and 38% (Benevento).
On the defensive side: Benevento in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Modena home games / Benevento away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Modena play Benevento?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Modena's games and 50% of Benevento's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Modena vs Benevento usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Modena's recent games and 38% of Benevento's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Modena and Benevento tend to score early?
Modena have had a goal before half-time in 88% of their recent matches, Benevento in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Modena and Benevento share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadio Alberto Braglia, Regular Season - 18, as Modena and Benevento drew 1-1 in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Modena 1.17 xG and Benevento 1.41 xG, a combined 2.58. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Modena attack 1.13 / defence 1.26 against Benevento attack 1.05 / defence 0.90, drawn from 17/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Modena 29% | Draw 31% | Benevento 40%, with Benevento to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Modena 59%, Benevento 29%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Modena's trading profile (17 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.
Benevento's trading profile (17 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Modena 1.24 PPG, Benevento 1.24 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.