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Dominant Modena run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Bari.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Modena beat Bari 3-0 at Stadio Alberto Braglia, Regular Season - 3, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Modena 1.33 xG and Bari 1.10 xG, a combined 2.43. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Modena beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Bari landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Modena attack 0.99 / defence 1.11 against Bari attack 0.94 / defence 1.11, drawn from 40/40 games (Blended).

On the result, the model split it Modena 38% | Draw 35% | Bari 27%, with Modena to win its most likely call at 38%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Modena 48%, Bari 35%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Modena's trading profile (40 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.

Bari's trading profile (40 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Modena 1.23 PPG, Bari 1.23 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Modena win broke the near-deadlock. Modena (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.40 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.25 average — tighter than their form line. Bari (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.90 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.15 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights