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Dominant Venezia run riot with a 2-5 hammering of Mantova.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Venezia beat Mantova 2-5 at Stadio Danilo Martelli, Regular Season - 21, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Mantova 1.17 xG and Venezia 1.43 xG, a combined 2.60. The scoreboard read 2-5 for 7 actual goals. Mantova beat their projection by 0.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Venezia outscored their 1.43 projection by 3.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mantova attack 0.91 / defence 1.21 against Venezia attack 1.14 / defence 0.99, drawn from 58/20 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Mantova 30% | Draw 27% | Venezia 43%, with Venezia to win its most likely call at 43%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. Over 3.5 was 26% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mantova 50%, Venezia 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Mantova's trading profile (58 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.

Venezia's trading profile (58 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Mantova 1.09 PPG, Venezia 1.21 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Venezia win broke the near-deadlock. Mantova (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 1.24 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Venezia (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights