🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Dominant Mantova run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Spezia.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Mantova beat Spezia 4-1 at Stadio Danilo Martelli, Regular Season - 13, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Mantova 1.04 xG and Spezia 1.59 xG, a combined 2.64. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Mantova beat their projection by 3.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mantova attack 0.92 / defence 1.38 against Spezia attack 1.04 / defence 0.86, drawn from 50/50 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Mantova 22% | Draw 31% | Spezia 47%, with Spezia to win its most likely call at 47%. Instead the game produced a Mantova win, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 27% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mantova 50%, Spezia 38%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Mantova's trading profile (50 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.

Spezia's trading profile (50 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Mantova 1.10 PPG, Spezia 1.46 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Mantova win broke the near-deadlock. Mantova (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.17 average — above their attacking norm. Spezia (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 0.79 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights