Mantova vs Sampdoria – Pre-Match Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Mantova at 51%, yet other data sources diverge — this Mantova vs Sampdoria fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Mantova host Sampdoria at Stadio Danilo Martelli in Serie B, Regular Season - 4. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 13 September 2026 at 15:15 UTC.
Form Guide
Mantova — All Games: 6W 1D 3L from 10 Serie B outings this season, averaging 1.90 points per game. Last five: W L W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Mantova have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Mantova at Stadio Danilo Martelli this season: 7W 1D 2L from 10 home games — 2.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Serie B games this season, Sampdoria have recorded 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D W L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Sampdoria have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Sampdoria's away record: 2W 4D 4L from 10 road trips in Serie B this season (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Mantova are in the better shape of the two on current Serie B data — 0.50 PPG ahead (1.90 vs 1.40). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 4 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Mantova, 1 for Sampdoria and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 21 Feb 2026, ended 2–1 with Mantova winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Mantova in-play and half-time data (40 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games).
Sampdoria in-play and half-time data (40 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 55% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Mantova 55% versus Sampdoria 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Mantova 55% | Sampdoria 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Mantova 1.61 xG and Sampdoria 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mantova attack 1.238 / defence 1.018 | Sampdoria attack 0.885 / defence 0.950. League average goals — home 1.370 / away 1.155. Data: 41 Mantova games / 40 Sampdoria games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Mantova 51% | Draw 25% | Sampdoria 25%. Fair-value odds: Mantova 1.96 | Draw 4.00 | Sampdoria 4.00. Mantova hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.65. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.65 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Mantova are the pick at 51% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Mantova offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.65 combined xG gives a 49% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Mantova 60% | Sampdoria 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Mantova vs Sampdoria | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Stadio Danilo Martelli • Kick-off: Sunday 13 Sep 2026, 15:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Mantova 51% | Draw 25% | Sampdoria 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 52% | xG Mantova 1.61 / Sampdoria 1.04 • Poisson strength factors: Mantova attack 1.238 / def 1.018 | Sampdoria attack 0.885 / def 0.950 | league avg home 1.370 / away 1.155 • Poisson stance: Mantova (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.61
Mantova xG
Expected Goals
1.04
Sampdoria xG
52%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Mantova vs Sampdoria kick off?
Mantova vs Sampdoria is scheduled to kick off at 15:15 on Sunday 13 September 2026 at Stadio Danilo Martelli.
Where is Mantova vs Sampdoria being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Danilo Martelli.
What competition is Mantova vs Sampdoria part of?
Mantova vs Sampdoria is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Mantova vs Sampdoria?
Our statistical model gives Mantova a 51% chance of winning, Sampdoria a 25% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Mantova the favourite.
Will both teams score in Mantova vs Sampdoria?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Mantova and Sampdoria will score (BTTS).
Will Mantova vs Sampdoria have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Mantova and Sampdoria?
Record (4 meetings): Mantova 2W | Draws 1 | Sampdoria 1W.
What form are Mantova and Sampdoria in?
Mantova (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-W-W-D. Sampdoria (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-W-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Mantova's attack at 1.24x the league average against Sampdoria's defence at 0.95x — combine the two and it projects 1.61 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Sampdoria's attack versus Mantova's defence, projects 1.04 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 41/40 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (9.8%), 2-1 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Mantova Win
51%
1.98
25%
4.02
25%
4.08
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.4%
Home win
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.61
Mantova xG
Total xG
2.65
1.04
Sampdoria xG
1.98
51%
Home win
4.02
25%
Draw
4.08
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.93
48%
BTTS No
2.07
Clean Sheet
35%
2.83
20%
5.00
Win to Nil
18%
5.60
5%
20.39
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.1 | 7.3 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.4 | 11.8 | 6.2 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.1 | 9.5 | 5.0 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.9 | 5.1 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.0 | 2.1 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Mantova vs Sampdoria?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Mantova and Sampdoria expected to score?
The model projects 1.61 expected goals for Mantova and 1.04 for Sampdoria, a combined total of 2.65.
How confident is the prediction model for Mantova vs Sampdoria?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Mantova's recent record stands at 15W 8D 17L from 40 games, a 1.32 PPG return, with W-L-W-W-D in the last five. It's still early in the season for Mantova, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Sampdoria, meanwhile, have gone 11W 12D 17L across 40 games — 1.12 PPG, with D-W-L-D-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Sampdoria, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Mantova on 1.32 PPG, Sampdoria on 1.12. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Mantova have managed 10W 3D 7L from 20 games — 1.65 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Sampdoria's away record stands at 2W 7D 11L across 20 trips, a 0.65 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.12 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Sampdoria's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Mantova come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Mantova are averaging 1.27 goals scored and 1.48 conceded per game recently; Sampdoria are on 0.92 scored and 1.27 conceded.
Last 40 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Mantova
Early Season
Sampdoria
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Mantova and Sampdoria in coming into this match?
Mantova have gone 15W 8D 17L in their last 40 games (1.32 PPG), while Sampdoria have gone 11W 12D 17L in their last 40 (1.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Mantova at home or Sampdoria away?
Mantova's home record (1.65 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Mantova at home: 1.65 PPG; Sampdoria away: 0.65 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Mantova and Sampdoria runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. They last met on 21 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Mantova go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Mantova's record when hosting Sampdoria specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Mantova
1
Draws
1
Sampdoria
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Mantova and Sampdoria?
From 4 meetings on record, Mantova have won 2, Sampdoria have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Mantova and Sampdoria last play each other?
They last met on 21 February 2026, when Mantova 2-1 Sampdoria.
Who has won more matches between Mantova and Sampdoria?
Mantova have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Mantova are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Sampdoria see a goal before the break in 55% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Mantova 65%, Sampdoria 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 55% (Mantova) and 40% (Sampdoria).
On the defensive side: Sampdoria in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Mantova home games / Sampdoria away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Mantova play Sampdoria?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 65% of Mantova's games and 60% of Sampdoria's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Mantova vs Sampdoria usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 55% of Mantova's recent games and 40% of Sampdoria's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Mantova and Sampdoria tend to score early?
Mantova have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Sampdoria in 55% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.