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Shock result as Reggiana defy the odds to beat Mantova 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Reggiana beat Mantova 0-1 at Stadio Danilo Martelli, Regular Season - 15, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Mantova 1.95 xG and Reggiana 1.48 xG, a combined 3.43. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Mantova fell 2.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mantova attack 1.15 / defence 1.32 against Reggiana attack 1.03 / defence 1.24, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Mantova 48% | Draw 24% | Reggiana 28%, with Mantova to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual Reggiana win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 67%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 87% and missed. Over 3.5 was 45% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mantova 52%, Reggiana 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Mantova's trading profile (52 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Reggiana's trading profile (52 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Mantova 1.12 PPG, Reggiana 1.17 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Reggiana win broke the near-deadlock. Mantova (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.35 scoring average — below par going forward. Reggiana (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.58 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights