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Shock result as Pisa defy the odds to beat Mantova 2-3.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Pisa beat Mantova 2-3 at Stadio Danilo Martelli, Regular Season - 16, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Mantova 0.93 xG and Pisa 0.81 xG, a combined 1.74. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Mantova beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Pisa outscored their 0.81 projection by 2.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mantova attack 0.73 / defence 0.74 against Pisa attack 0.99 / defence 1.03, drawn from 15/53 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Mantova 34% | Draw 39% | Pisa 27%, with the draw its most likely call at 39%. The actual Pisa win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 25%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 55% and landed. Over 3.5 was 10% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mantova 27%, Pisa 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Mantova's trading profile (15 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.

Pisa's trading profile (15 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Pisa arrived the stronger side — 1.93 PPG against 1.20. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Mantova (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 0.43 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Pisa (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.29 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.14 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights