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Prediction vindicated as Mantova edge out Pescara 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Mantova beat Pescara 2-1 at Stadio Danilo Martelli, Regular Season - 2, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Mantova 1.58 xG and Pescara 0.91 xG, a combined 2.49. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mantova attack 1.04 / defence 0.95 against Pescara attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 39/1 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Mantova 51% | Draw 29% | Pescara 20%, with Mantova to win its most likely call at 51%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mantova 0%, Pescara 100%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Mantova 0.00 PPG, Pescara 0.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Mantova win broke the near-deadlock. Mantova scored 2 against a 0.00 average — above their attacking norm. Pescara conceded 2 against a 3.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.