Mantova vs Palermo – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Mantova at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Mantova vs Palermo fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie B clash, Regular Season - 7 as Mantova welcome Palermo to Stadio Danilo Martelli. Kick-off is set for Saturday 17 October 2026 at 13:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Mantova stand at 6W 1D 3L from 10 Serie B matches — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W L W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Mantova have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Mantova have posted 7W 1D 2L at Stadio Danilo Martelli — 2.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Palermo — All Games: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Serie B fixtures this season — 2.00 PPG. Last five: L W W W W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.20. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Palermo have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Palermo's form when playing away from home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Mantova 1.90 PPG, Palermo 2.00 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Mantova, 1 for Palermo and 3 shared spoils from 4 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 4 Mar 2026, ended 1–2 with Palermo winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Mantova trading profile (41 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games).
Palermo trading profile (41 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; they lead at the break 51% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Mantova 54% versus Palermo 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Mantova 54% | Palermo 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Mantova 1.78 xG and Palermo 1.35 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mantova attack 1.228 / defence 1.017 | Palermo attack 1.148 / defence 1.042. League average goals — home 1.391 / away 1.158. Data: 41 Mantova games / 41 Palermo games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Mantova 48% | Draw 23% | Palermo 29%. Fair-value odds: Mantova 2.08 | Draw 4.35 | Palermo 3.45. Mantova hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.13. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.13 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.78 / 1.35) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Mantova as the most likely outcome at 48% — moderate model lean. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Mantova offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.13 combined xG gives a 61% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 62% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Mantova 60% | Palermo 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Mantova vs Palermo | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Stadio Danilo Martelli • Kick-off: Saturday 17 Oct 2026, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Mantova 48% | Draw 23% | Palermo 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 62% | xG Mantova 1.78 / Palermo 1.35 • Poisson strength factors: Mantova attack 1.228 / def 1.017 | Palermo attack 1.148 / def 1.042 | league avg home 1.391 / away 1.158 • Poisson stance: Mantova (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.78
Mantova xG
Expected Goals
1.35
Palermo xG
62%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Mantova vs Palermo kick off?
Mantova vs Palermo is scheduled to kick off at 13:00 on Saturday 17 October 2026 at Stadio Danilo Martelli.
Where is Mantova vs Palermo being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Danilo Martelli.
What competition is Mantova vs Palermo part of?
Mantova vs Palermo is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Mantova vs Palermo?
Our statistical model gives Mantova a 48% chance of winning, Palermo a 29% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Mantova the favourite.
Will both teams score in Mantova vs Palermo?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Mantova and Palermo will score (BTTS).
Will Mantova vs Palermo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between Mantova and Palermo?
Record (4 meetings): Mantova 0W | Draws 3 | Palermo 1W.
What form are Mantova and Palermo in?
Mantova (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-W-W-D. Palermo (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Mantova's attack at 1.23x the league average against Palermo's defence at 1.04x — combine the two and it projects 1.78 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Palermo's attack versus Mantova's defence, projects 1.35 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 41/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 1-2 (7.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Mantova Win
48%
2.10
23%
4.32
29%
3.42
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
1 – 0
7.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.78
Mantova xG
Total xG
3.13
1.35
Palermo xG
2.10
48%
Home win
4.32
23%
Draw
3.42
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.62
38%
BTTS No
2.61
Clean Sheet
26%
3.87
17%
5.94
Win to Nil
12%
8.11
5%
20.33
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.4 | 5.9 | 4.0 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.8 | 10.5 | 7.1 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 9.3 | 6.3 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 5.6 | 3.8 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 2.5 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Mantova vs Palermo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.9%.
How many goals are Mantova and Palermo expected to score?
The model projects 1.78 expected goals for Mantova and 1.35 for Palermo, a combined total of 3.13.
How confident is the prediction model for Mantova vs Palermo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Mantova come into this having played 41 games, going 15W 8D 18L for 1.29 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-W-W-D. It's still early in the season for Mantova, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Palermo sit at 1.95 PPG from 41 outings (23W 11D 7L), a run that reads L-W-W-W-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Palermo, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Palermo carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.66 PPG clear of Mantova — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Mantova's home form reads 10W 3D 7L across 20 games on their own ground, a 1.65 PPG return.
Away from home, Palermo have taken 1.30 points per game from 20 outings (6W 8D 6L). That's a step down from their 1.95 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Palermo's season.
The Goals Picture
Mantova are averaging 1.24 goals scored and 1.46 conceded per game recently; Palermo are on 1.66 scored and 0.93 conceded.
Defensively: Palermo in 44% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 41 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Mantova
Early Season
Palermo
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Mantova and Palermo in coming into this match?
Mantova have gone 15W 8D 18L in their last 41 games (1.29 PPG), while Palermo have gone 23W 11D 7L in their last 41 (1.95 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Mantova at home or Palermo away?
Mantova's home record (1.65 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Mantova at home: 1.65 PPG; Palermo away: 1.30 PPG.
Have Mantova or Palermo been keeping clean sheets recently?
Mantova have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their recent games, Palermo in 44%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Mantova and Palermo runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. They last met on 4 March 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Mantova's record when hosting Palermo specifically: 0W 2D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Mantova
3
Draws
1
Palermo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Mantova and Palermo?
From 4 meetings on record, Mantova have won 0, Palermo have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Mantova and Palermo last play each other?
They last met on 4 March 2026, when Palermo 2-1 Mantova.
Who has won more matches between Mantova and Palermo?
Palermo have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Mantova are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Palermo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Mantova 65%, Palermo 55% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 55% (Mantova) and 45% (Palermo).
On the defensive side: Palermo in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Mantova home games / Palermo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Mantova play Palermo?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 65% of Mantova's games and 55% of Palermo's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Mantova vs Palermo usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 55% of Mantova's recent games and 45% of Palermo's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Mantova and Palermo tend to score early?
Mantova have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Palermo in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.