Mantova vs Palermo – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Mantova at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Mantova vs Palermo fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie B clash, Regular Season - 7 as Mantova welcome Palermo to Stadio Danilo Martelli. Kick-off is set for Saturday 17 October 2026 at 13:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Mantova stand at 6W 1D 3L from 10 Serie B matches — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W L W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Mantova haven't played a Serie B game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Mantova have posted 6W 2D 2L at Stadio Danilo Martelli — 2.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Palermo — All Games: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Serie B fixtures this season — 1.80 PPG. Last five: D W L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Palermo haven't played a Serie B game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Palermo's form when playing away from home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Mantova 1.90 PPG, Palermo 1.80 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Mantova, 1 for Palermo and 3 shared spoils from 4 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 4 Mar 2026, ended 1–2 with Palermo winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Mantova trading profile (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Palermo trading profile (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; they lead at the break 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Mantova 50% versus Palermo 40%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Mantova 53% | Palermo 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Mantova 1.45 xG and Palermo 1.13 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mantova attack 1.015 / defence 1.062 | Palermo attack 0.997 / defence 0.924. League average goals — home 1.543 / away 1.071. Data: 38 Mantova games / 38 Palermo games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Mantova 43% | Draw 29% | Palermo 28%. Fair-value odds: Mantova 2.33 | Draw 3.45 | Palermo 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.58. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.58 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Mantova as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Mantova offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.58 combined xG gives a 48% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Mantova 60% | Palermo 40%.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (38 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Mantova vs Palermo | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Stadio Danilo Martelli • Kick-off: Saturday 17 Oct 2026, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Mantova 43% | Draw 29% | Palermo 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 53% | xG Mantova 1.45 / Palermo 1.13 • Poisson strength factors: Mantova attack 1.015 / def 1.062 | Palermo attack 0.997 / def 0.924 | league avg home 1.543 / away 1.071 • Poisson stance: Mantova (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.45
Mantova xG
Expected Goals
1.13
Palermo xG
53%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Mantova vs Palermo kick off?
Mantova vs Palermo is scheduled to kick off at 13:00 on Saturday 17 October 2026 at Stadio Danilo Martelli.
Where is Mantova vs Palermo being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Danilo Martelli.
What competition is Mantova vs Palermo part of?
Mantova vs Palermo is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Mantova vs Palermo?
Our statistical model gives Mantova a 43% chance of winning, Palermo a 28% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Mantova the favourite.
Will both teams score in Mantova vs Palermo?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Mantova and Palermo will score (BTTS).
Will Mantova vs Palermo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Mantova and Palermo?
Record (4 meetings): Mantova 0W | Draws 3 | Palermo 1W.
What form are Mantova and Palermo in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. Mantova (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Mantova's attack at 1.01x the league average against Palermo's defence at 0.92x — combine the two and it projects 1.45 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Palermo's attack versus Mantova's defence, projects 1.13 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 38/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (9.3%), 0-0 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Mantova Win
43%
2.33
29%
3.48
28%
3.53
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.0%
Home win
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.45
Mantova xG
Total xG
2.58
1.13
Palermo xG
2.33
43%
Home win
3.48
29%
Draw
3.53
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.88
47%
BTTS No
2.14
Clean Sheet
32%
3.11
24%
4.25
Win to Nil
14%
7.23
7%
15.03
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.6 | 8.6 | 4.9 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.0 | 12.4 | 7.0 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.9 | 9.0 | 5.1 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 4.3 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Mantova vs Palermo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Mantova and Palermo expected to score?
The model projects 1.45 expected goals for Mantova and 1.13 for Palermo, a combined total of 2.58.
How confident is the prediction model for Mantova vs Palermo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Mantova come into this having played 38 games, going 13W 7D 18L for 1.21 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-W-W-L. Mantova haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
On the other side, Palermo sit at 1.87 PPG from 38 outings (20W 11D 7L), a run that reads D-W-L-L-W across their last five. Palermo haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Palermo carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.66 PPG clear of Mantova — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Mantova's home form reads 9W 3D 7L across 19 games on their own ground, a 1.58 PPG return.
Away from home, Palermo have taken 1.21 points per game from 19 outings (5W 8D 6L). That's a step down from their 1.87 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Palermo's season.
The Goals Picture
Mantova are averaging 1.18 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Palermo are on 1.61 scored and 0.92 conceded.
Defensively: Palermo in 45% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 38 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Mantova
Pre-Season
Palermo
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Mantova and Palermo in coming into this match?
Mantova have gone 13W 7D 18L in their last 38 games (1.21 PPG), while Palermo have gone 20W 11D 7L in their last 38 (1.87 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Mantova at home or Palermo away?
Mantova's home record (1.58 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Mantova at home: 1.58 PPG; Palermo away: 1.21 PPG.
Have Mantova or Palermo been keeping clean sheets recently?
Mantova have kept a clean sheet in 24% of their recent games, Palermo in 45%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Mantova and Palermo runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. They last met on 4 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Mantova's record when hosting Palermo specifically: 0W 2D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Mantova
3
Draws
1
Palermo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Mantova and Palermo?
From 4 meetings on record, Mantova have won 0, Palermo have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Mantova and Palermo last play each other?
They last met on 4 March 2026, when Palermo 2-1 Mantova.
Who has won more matches between Mantova and Palermo?
Palermo have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Mantova are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Palermo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Mantova 63%, Palermo 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Mantova) and 42% (Palermo).
On the defensive side: Palermo in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Mantova home games / Palermo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Mantova play Palermo?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 63% of Mantova's games and 53% of Palermo's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Mantova vs Palermo usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 53% of Mantova's recent games and 42% of Palermo's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Mantova and Palermo tend to score early?
Mantova have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Palermo in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.