Mantova 0-2 Palermo – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Mantova at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Mantova vs Palermo fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie B clash, Regular Season - 7 as Mantova welcome Palermo to Stadio Danilo Martelli. Kick-off is set for Saturday 17 October 2026 at 15:15 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Mantova stand at 6W 2D 2L from 10 Serie B matches — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W D W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Mantova have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Mantova have posted 7W 2D 1L at Stadio Danilo Martelli — 2.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Palermo — All Games: 7W 1D 2L from 10 Serie B fixtures this season — 2.20 PPG. Last five: W W D W W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.40. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Palermo have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Palermo's form when playing away from home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.50 is notably below their overall 2.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Mantova 2.00 PPG, Palermo 2.20 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Mantova, 1 for Palermo and 3 shared spoils from 4 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 4 Mar 2026, ended 1–2 with Palermo winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Mantova trading profile (44 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games).
Palermo trading profile (44 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 70% of those occasions; they lead at the break 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Mantova 54% versus Palermo 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Mantova 54% | Palermo 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Mantova 1.77 xG and Palermo 1.56 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mantova attack 1.231 / defence 0.950 | Palermo attack 1.312 / defence 1.084. League average goals — home 1.328 / away 1.253. Palermo have an above-average attack strength of 1.312 — the away xG of 1.56 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 44 Mantova games / 44 Palermo games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Mantova 42% | Draw 24% | Palermo 33%. Fair-value odds: Mantova 2.38 | Draw 4.17 | Palermo 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS probability 66% | Total xG 3.33. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.33 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 66% reflects that both xG figures (1.77 / 1.56) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Mantova as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Mantova offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.33 combined xG gives a 65% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 66% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Mantova 50% | Palermo 50%.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Mantova vs Palermo | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Stadio Danilo Martelli • Kick-off: Saturday 17 Oct 2026, 15:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Mantova 42% | Draw 24% | Palermo 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 65% | BTTS 66% | xG Mantova 1.77 / Palermo 1.56 • Poisson strength factors: Mantova attack 1.231 / def 0.950 | Palermo attack 1.312 / def 1.084 | league avg home 1.328 / away 1.253 • Poisson stance: Mantova (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.77
Mantova xG
Expected Goals
1.56
Palermo xG
66%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
43%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Mantova vs Palermo kick off?
Mantova vs Palermo kicked off at 15:15 on Saturday 17 October 2026 at Stadio Danilo Martelli.
What was the final score in Mantova vs Palermo?
Mantova 0 - 2 Palermo.
Where is Mantova vs Palermo being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Danilo Martelli.
What competition is Mantova vs Palermo part of?
Mantova vs Palermo is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Mantova vs Palermo?
Our statistical model gives Mantova a 42% chance of winning, Palermo a 33% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Mantova the favourite.
Will both teams score in Mantova vs Palermo?
Our model estimates a 66% probability that both Mantova and Palermo will score (BTTS).
Will Mantova vs Palermo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 65%.
What is the head-to-head record between Mantova and Palermo?
Record (4 meetings): Mantova 0W | Draws 3 | Palermo 1W.
What form are Mantova and Palermo in?
Mantova (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-D-W-D-W. Palermo (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-W-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Mantova's attack at 1.23x the league average against Palermo's defence at 1.08x — combine the two and it projects 1.77 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Palermo's attack versus Mantova's defence, projects 1.56 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.7%), 1-2 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Mantova Win
42%
2.37
24%
4.11
33%
2.99
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.9%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.7%
Home win
1 – 2
7.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.77
Mantova xG
Total xG
3.33
1.56
Palermo xG
2.37
42%
Home win
4.11
24%
Draw
2.99
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
65%
Over 2.5
1.54
35%
Under 2.5
2.86
43%
Over 3.5
2.33
57%
Under 3.5
1.75
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
66%
BTTS Yes
1.51
34%
BTTS No
2.97
Clean Sheet
21%
4.76
17%
5.88
Win to Nil
9%
11.27
6%
17.61
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.6 | 5.6 | 4.3 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 6.3 | 9.9 | 7.7 | 4.0 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 8.7 | 6.8 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 5.2 | 4.0 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 2.3 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Mantova vs Palermo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.2%.
How many goals are Mantova and Palermo expected to score?
The model projects 1.77 expected goals for Mantova and 1.56 for Palermo, a combined total of 3.33.
How confident is the prediction model for Mantova vs Palermo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Mantova come into this having played 44 games, going 17W 9D 18L for 1.36 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-W-D-W. It's still early in the season for Mantova, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Palermo sit at 1.98 PPG from 44 outings (25W 12D 7L), a run that reads W-W-D-W-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Palermo, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Palermo carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.62 PPG clear of Mantova — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Mantova's home form reads 11W 4D 7L across 22 games on their own ground, a 1.68 PPG return.
Away from home, Palermo have taken 1.36 points per game from 22 outings (7W 9D 6L). That's a step down from their 1.98 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Palermo's season.
The Goals Picture
Mantova are averaging 1.32 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game recently; Palermo are on 1.70 scored and 0.95 conceded.
Defensively: Palermo in 41% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 44 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Mantova
Early Season
Palermo
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Mantova and Palermo in coming into this match?
Mantova have gone 17W 9D 18L in their last 44 games (1.36 PPG), while Palermo have gone 25W 12D 7L in their last 44 (1.98 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Mantova at home or Palermo away?
Mantova's home record (1.68 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Mantova at home: 1.68 PPG; Palermo away: 1.36 PPG.
Have Mantova or Palermo been keeping clean sheets recently?
Mantova have kept a clean sheet in 23% of their recent games, Palermo in 41%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Mantova and Palermo runs to 5 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. The two were last together as recently as 17 October 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Palermo have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
Mantova's record when hosting Palermo specifically: 0W 2D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
0
Mantova
3
Draws
2
Palermo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Mantova and Palermo?
From 5 meetings on record, Mantova have won 0, Palermo have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Mantova and Palermo last play each other?
They last met on 17 October 2026, when Mantova 0-2 Palermo.
Who has won more matches between Mantova and Palermo?
Palermo have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Mantova are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Palermo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Mantova 64%, Palermo 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Mantova) and 46% (Palermo).
On the defensive side: Palermo in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Mantova home games / Palermo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Mantova play Palermo?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of Mantova's games and 59% of Palermo's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Mantova vs Palermo usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Mantova's recent games and 46% of Palermo's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Mantova and Palermo tend to score early?
Mantova have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Palermo in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Palermo cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Mantova.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Palermo beat Mantova 0-2 at Stadio Danilo Martelli, Regular Season - 7, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Mantova 1.77 xG and Palermo 1.56 xG, a combined 3.33. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Mantova fell 1.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mantova attack 1.23 / defence 0.95 against Palermo attack 1.31 / defence 1.08, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Mantova 42% | Draw 24% | Palermo 33%, with Mantova to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual Palermo win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 43% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mantova 54%, Palermo 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Mantova's trading profile (44 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Palermo's trading profile (44 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Palermo arrived the stronger side — 1.98 PPG against 1.36. That form edge translated into the three points. Mantova (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.59 scoring average — below par going forward. Palermo (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.32 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.