Mantova 0-0 Modena – Result & Analysis

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Poisson model rates Mantova at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Mantova vs Modena fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Full Analysis

Stadio Danilo Martelli plays host to Mantova versus Modena in Serie B, Regular Season - 15. Kick-off: Saturday 30 November 2024 at 16:15 UTC.

Form

Mantova (all games): 2W 4D 4L across 10 Serie B fixtures this term — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L D L W D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Mantova, so this record blends games from this season and last.

At home at Stadio Danilo Martelli, Mantova have gone 4W 2D 0L this season (6 games, 2.33 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 6 home games (67%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Danilo Martelli. Their home PPG of 2.33 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Mantova are significantly better at Stadio Danilo Martelli than their overall form suggests.

Modena's overall Serie B record this term: 2W 5D 3L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: L D L W D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.50. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Modena, so this record blends games from this season and last.

When travelling in Serie B this season, Modena have posted 1W 5D 4L from 10 away outings — 0.80 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

A near-identical PPG reading — 1.00 for Mantova, 1.10 for Modena — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.

Trading Data

Mantova goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (14 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 17% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 17% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.

Modena goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (14 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Mantova 43% versus Modena 64%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Mantova 29% | Modena 57%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Mantova 1.09 xG and Modena 0.81 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mantova attack 0.837 / defence 0.803 | Modena attack 0.912 / defence 1.106. League average goals — home 1.180 / away 1.102. Data: 14 Mantova games / 52 Modena games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Mantova 39% | Draw 37% | Modena 24%. Fair-value odds: Mantova 2.56 | Draw 2.70 | Modena 4.17. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 37% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 30% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 1.90. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 70% probability — total xG of 1.90 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Mantova as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 37% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Mantova if the outright odds are short.

Poisson projects 1.90 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 30% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 40% on No. Form rates are neutral: Mantova 33% | Modena 60%.

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