Mantova 3-1 Empoli – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Mantova at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Mantova vs Empoli fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Empoli make the trip to Stadio Danilo Martelli to face Mantova in Serie B, Regular Season - 2. The match kicks off on Sunday 30 August 2026 at 17:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Mantova have collected 1.90 PPG across 10 Serie B outings this season: 6W 1D 3L. Last five: L W W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Mantova have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Mantova have posted 6W 2D 2L at Stadio Danilo Martelli — 2.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Empoli (all games): 3W 4D 3L across 10 Serie B outings this term — 1.30 points per game. Last five: D L W D W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Empoli have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Empoli's away record: 0W 3D 7L from 10 road trips in Serie B this season (0.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.30 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form ledger tips toward Mantova. A 0.60 PPG lead over Empoli (1.90 vs 1.30) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Mantova have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Empoli in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Mantova lead 0W to 1W over the last 2 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 14 Mar 2026, ended 2–2 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Mantova goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (39 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Empoli goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (39 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Mantova 51% versus Empoli 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Mantova 54% | Empoli 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Mantova 1.49 xG and Empoli 1.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mantova attack 1.077 / defence 1.034 | Empoli attack 0.963 / defence 1.063. League average goals — home 1.298 / away 1.160. Data: 39 Mantova games / 39 Empoli games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Mantova 44% | Draw 27% | Empoli 29%. Fair-value odds: Mantova 2.27 | Draw 3.70 | Empoli 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.64. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.64 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Mantova at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Mantova if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.64 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 49% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Mantova 60% | Empoli 60% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (39 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Mantova vs Empoli | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Stadio Danilo Martelli • Kick-off: Sunday 30 Aug 2026, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Mantova 44% | Draw 27% | Empoli 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 54% | xG Mantova 1.49 / Empoli 1.16 • Poisson strength factors: Mantova attack 1.077 / def 1.034 | Empoli attack 0.963 / def 1.063 | league avg home 1.298 / away 1.160 • Poisson stance: Mantova (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.49
Mantova xG
Expected Goals
1.16
Empoli xG
54%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Mantova vs Empoli kick off?
Mantova vs Empoli kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 30 August 2026 at Stadio Danilo Martelli.
What was the final score in Mantova vs Empoli?
Mantova 3 - 1 Empoli.
Where is Mantova vs Empoli being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Danilo Martelli.
What competition is Mantova vs Empoli part of?
Mantova vs Empoli is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Mantova vs Empoli?
Our statistical model gives Mantova a 44% chance of winning, Empoli a 29% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Mantova the favourite.
Will both teams score in Mantova vs Empoli?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Mantova and Empoli will score (BTTS).
Will Mantova vs Empoli have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Mantova and Empoli?
Record (2 meetings): Mantova 0W | Draws 1 | Empoli 1W.
What form are Mantova and Empoli in?
Mantova (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-W-L-W. Empoli (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-L-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Mantova's attacking strength (1.08x league average) is weighed against Empoli's defensive record (1.06x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.49. Flip it around — Empoli's attack (0.96x) against Mantova's defence (1.03x) — and the away total comes out at 1.16.
The sample (39/39 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.1%), 1-0 (9.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Mantova Win
44%
2.27
27%
3.68
29%
3.48
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.6%
Home win
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.49
Mantova xG
Total xG
2.64
1.16
Empoli xG
2.27
44%
Home win
3.68
27%
Draw
3.48
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.86
46%
BTTS No
2.16
Clean Sheet
32%
3.17
23%
4.42
Win to Nil
14%
7.20
7%
15.38
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.1 | 8.2 | 4.8 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.6 | 12.2 | 7.1 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.9 | 9.1 | 5.3 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 4.5 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Mantova vs Empoli?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Mantova and Empoli expected to score?
The model projects 1.49 expected goals for Mantova and 1.16 for Empoli, a combined total of 2.64.
How confident is the prediction model for Mantova vs Empoli?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Mantova come into this having played 39 games, going 14W 7D 18L for 1.26 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-W-L-W. It's still early in the season for Mantova, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Empoli sit at 1.13 PPG from 39 outings (10W 14D 15L), a run that reads D-L-W-D-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Empoli, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.26 PPG for Mantova against 1.13 for Empoli. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Mantova's home form reads 9W 3D 7L across 19 games on their own ground, a 1.58 PPG return.
Away from home, Empoli have taken 0.79 points per game from 19 outings (4W 3D 12L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Mantova come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Mantova are averaging 1.21 goals scored and 1.49 conceded per game recently; Empoli are on 1.23 scored and 1.38 conceded.
Last 39 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Mantova
Early Season
Empoli
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Mantova and Empoli in coming into this match?
Mantova have gone 14W 7D 18L in their last 39 games (1.26 PPG), while Empoli have gone 10W 14D 15L in their last 39 (1.13 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Mantova at home or Empoli away?
Mantova's home record (1.58 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Mantova at home: 1.58 PPG; Empoli away: 0.79 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 3 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2025 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. The two were last together as recently as 30 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Mantova have gone 1W 0D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Empoli — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 3 Meetings
1
Mantova
1
Draws
1
Empoli
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Mantova and Empoli?
From 3 meetings on record, Mantova have won 1, Empoli have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Mantova and Empoli last play each other?
They last met on 30 August 2026, when Mantova 3-1 Empoli.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Mantova are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Empoli see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Mantova 63%, Empoli 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Mantova) and 58% (Empoli). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 32% and 32% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Empoli in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Mantova home games / Empoli away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Mantova play Empoli?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 63% of Mantova's games and 47% of Empoli's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Mantova vs Empoli usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 53% of Mantova's matches and 58% of Empoli's.
Do Mantova and Empoli tend to score early?
Mantova have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Empoli in 58% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Mantova cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Empoli.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Mantova beat Empoli 3-1 at Stadio Danilo Martelli, Regular Season - 2, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Mantova 1.49 xG and Empoli 1.16 xG, a combined 2.64. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Mantova beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mantova attack 1.08 / defence 1.03 against Empoli attack 0.96 / defence 1.06, drawn from 39/39 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Mantova 44% | Draw 27% | Empoli 29%, with Mantova to win its most likely call at 44%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 27% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mantova 54%, Empoli 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Mantova's trading profile (39 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
Empoli's trading profile (39 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Mantova 1.26 PPG, Empoli 1.13 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Mantova win broke the near-deadlock. Mantova (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.47 average — above their attacking norm. Empoli (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.74 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.