Mantova 1-0 Cremonese – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Cremonese at 38% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Mantova vs Cremonese encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Cremonese travel to Stadio Danilo Martelli to take on Mantova in Serie B (matchday 13). The game is scheduled for Saturday 9 November 2024 at 16:15 UK time.
Form Guide
Mantova — last 10 games: 2W 3D 5L, averaging 0.90 points per game. Last five: D D L D L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
At home, Mantova have gone 3W 2D 0L in their last 5 home games (2.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 3 clean sheets from their last 5 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Mantova are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Cremonese stand at 4W 3D 3L — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D W W D L. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.50. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.
On the road, Cremonese have gone 3W 3D 4L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Cremonese — 0.60 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.50 vs 0.90). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
In-Play Profile
Mantova in-play tendencies (last 12 games, 5 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 20% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 20% of games (home games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
Cremonese in-play tendencies (last 12 games, 5 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 100% of their matches in away games; of the 5 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 40%; BTTS occurs in 100% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Mantova 42% versus Cremonese 75%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Mantova 25% | Cremonese 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Mantova 1.06 xG and Cremonese 1.25 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mantova attack 0.846 / defence 0.906 | Cremonese attack 1.324 / defence 1.076. League average goals — home 1.164 / away 1.044. Cremonese have an above-average attack rating of 1.324, which lifts their away xG to 1.25. Data: built from Mantova's last 12 games and Cremonese's last 50.
Result probabilities: Mantova 29% | Draw 33% | Cremonese 38%. Fair-value odds: Mantova 3.49 | Draw 3.02 | Cremonese 2.62. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS Yes probability 49% | Total xG 2.31. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.31 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 51% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Cremonese at 38% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Cremonese offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.31 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 59% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on No. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Mantova 40% (last 5 home games) | Cremonese 80% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Mantova vs Cremonese | Competition: Serie B, matchday 13 | Venue: Stadio Danilo Martelli • Kick-off: Saturday 9 November 2024 at 16:15 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Mantova 29% | Draw 33% | Cremonese 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% (Under 59%) | BTTS Yes 49% (No 51%) | xG Mantova 1.06 / Cremonese 1.25 • Poisson strength factors: Mantova attack 0.846 / def 0.906 | Cremonese attack 1.324 / def 1.076 | league avg home 1.164 / away 1.044 • Poisson stance: Cremonese (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.06
Mantova xG
Expected Goals
1.25
Cremonese xG
49%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Mantova vs Cremonese FAQs
What time does Mantova vs Cremonese kick off?
Mantova vs Cremonese kicked off at 16:15 UK time on Saturday 9 November 2024 at Stadio Danilo Martelli.
What was the final score in Mantova vs Cremonese?
Mantova 1 - 0 Cremonese.
Where is Mantova vs Cremonese being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Danilo Martelli.
What competition is Mantova vs Cremonese part of?
Mantova vs Cremonese is a Serie B fixture (matchday 13) (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Mantova vs Cremonese?
Our statistical model gives Mantova a 29% chance of winning, Cremonese a 38% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Cremonese the favourite.
Will both teams score in Mantova vs Cremonese?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Mantova and Cremonese will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (51%).
Will Mantova vs Cremonese have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (59%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Mantova's attack rating (0.85) and Cremonese's defence rating (1.08), the model arrives at 1.06 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Cremonese's attack versus Mantova's defence, projects 1.25 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Mantova's last 12 games and Cremonese's last 50 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.6%), 0-1 (10.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cremonese Win
29%
3.49
33%
3.02
38%
2.62
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.4%
Away win
1 – 0
10.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.06
Mantova xG
Total xG
2.31
1.25
Cremonese xG
3.49
29%
Home win
3.02
33%
Draw
2.62
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.04
51%
BTTS No
1.97
Clean Sheet
29%
3.50
35%
2.88
Win to Nil
8%
12.19
13%
7.55
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.9 | 12.4 | 7.8 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.5 | 13.1 | 8.2 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 7.0 | 4.4 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 2.5 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Mantova vs Cremonese Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Mantova vs Cremonese?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Mantova and Cremonese expected to score?
The model projects 1.06 expected goals for Mantova and 1.25 for Cremonese, a combined total of 2.31.
How confident is the prediction model for Mantova vs Cremonese?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 12 outings, Mantova have picked up 1.08 PPG on a 3W 4D 5L record — D-D-L-D-L across the most recent five.
Cremonese's form line: 5W 3D 4L from 12 games, 1.50 PPG, last five D-W-W-D-L.
Put side by side, Cremonese are the form team by 0.42 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Mantova.
Venue Form
On home soil, Mantova have posted 2.20 PPG from their last 5 home games (3W 2D 0L). That's noticeably better than their 1.08 PPG overall — Mantova are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Cremonese have gone 3W 1D 1L from their last 5 away games — 2.00 PPG when travelling. That's actually stronger than their 1.50 PPG overall record — Cremonese travel well.
Goals in Recent Form
Mantova are averaging 0.92 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game recently; Cremonese are on 1.50 scored and 1.33 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Cremonese in 75%.
Last 12 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Mantova
Blended
Cremonese
Blended
Mantova (Home) vs Cremonese (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Mantova
Blended
Cremonese
Blended
❓ Mantova vs Cremonese Form FAQs
What form are Mantova and Cremonese in coming into this match?
Mantova have gone 3W 4D 5L in their last 12 games (1.08 PPG), while Cremonese have gone 5W 3D 4L in their last 12 (1.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Mantova at home or Cremonese away?
Mantova's home record (2.20 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Mantova at home: 2.20 PPG; Cremonese away: 2.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 3 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 1 year from November 2024. All of them came in Serie B. The most recent was as recently as 27 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
Cremonese have won each of the latest 2 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
Mantova's record when hosting Cremonese specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 3 Meetings
1
Mantova
0
Draws
2
Cremonese
Recent Meetings
❓ Mantova vs Cremonese H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Mantova and Cremonese?
Across the 3 head-to-head matches in our data, Mantova have won 1, Cremonese have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Mantova and Cremonese last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 27 October 2026: Mantova 0-2 Cremonese.
Who has won more matches between Mantova and Cremonese?
Cremonese have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 3 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Mantova's games tend to start slowly — only 20% have a goal by half-time.
Cremonese are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Mantova at 40%, Cremonese at 100%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 20% for Mantova and 100% for Cremonese. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 20% and 60% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Mantova keep a clean sheet in 60% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Mantova home games / Cremonese away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Mantova vs Cremonese Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Mantova and Cremonese matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 40% of Mantova's games and 100% of Cremonese's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Mantova and Cremonese matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 20% of Mantova's matches and 100% of Cremonese's.
Do Mantova and Cremonese matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 20% of Mantova's recent matches and 100% of Cremonese's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Mantova defy the odds to beat Cremonese 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Mantova beat Cremonese 1-0 at Stadio Danilo Martelli, Regular Season - 13, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Mantova 1.06 xG and Cremonese 1.25 xG, a combined 2.31. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Cremonese landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mantova attack 0.85 / defence 0.91 against Cremonese attack 1.32 / defence 1.08, drawn from 12/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Mantova 29% | Draw 33% | Cremonese 38%, with Cremonese to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Mantova win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 70% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mantova 25%, Cremonese 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Mantova's trading profile (12 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not.
Cremonese's trading profile (12 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 75% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Cremonese arrived the stronger side — 1.50 PPG against 1.08. Form was overturned, with Mantova winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Cremonese (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.40 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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