Mantova 2-1 Carrarese – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Mantova at 52%, yet other data sources diverge — this Mantova vs Carrarese fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Carrarese make the trip to Stadio Danilo Martelli to face Mantova in Serie B, Regular Season - 38. The match kicks off on Friday 9 May 2025 at 19:30 UTC.
Form
Mantova (all games): 3W 2D 5L across 10 Serie B fixtures this term — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W D L W L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Mantova's form when playing at home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 games at Stadio Danilo Martelli this term (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Carrarese have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Serie B outings this season: 3W 5D 2L. Last five: D D W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Carrarese's away record: 0W 5D 5L from 10 road trips in Serie B this season (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.10 vs 1.40 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Mantova, 0 for Carrarese and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 20 Oct 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Mantova — key trading statistics (36 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
Carrarese — key trading statistics (36 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Mantova 58% versus Carrarese 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Mantova 53% | Carrarese 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Mantova 1.54 xG and Carrarese 0.86 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mantova attack 1.015 / defence 1.061 | Carrarese attack 0.721 / defence 1.169. League average goals — home 1.296 / away 1.122. Data: 36 Mantova games / 36 Carrarese games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Mantova 52% | Draw 28% | Carrarese 20%. Fair-value odds: Mantova 1.92 | Draw 3.57 | Carrarese 5.00. Mantova hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.40. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.40 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Mantova are the pick at 52% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Mantova if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.40 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 43% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 47% on No. Form rates are neutral: Mantova 50% | Carrarese 60%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Mantova vs Carrarese | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 38 | Venue: Stadio Danilo Martelli • Kick-off: Friday 9 May 2025, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Mantova 52% | Draw 28% | Carrarese 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 47% | xG Mantova 1.54 / Carrarese 0.86 • Poisson strength factors: Mantova attack 1.015 / def 1.061 | Carrarese attack 0.721 / def 1.169 | league avg home 1.296 / away 1.122 • Poisson stance: Mantova (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.54
Mantova xG
Expected Goals
0.86
Carrarese xG
47%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Mantova vs Carrarese kick off?
Mantova vs Carrarese kicked off at 19:30 on Friday 9 May 2025 at Stadio Danilo Martelli.
What was the final score in Mantova vs Carrarese?
Mantova 2 - 1 Carrarese.
Where is Mantova vs Carrarese being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Danilo Martelli.
What competition is Mantova vs Carrarese part of?
Mantova vs Carrarese is a Regular Season - 38 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Mantova vs Carrarese?
Our statistical model gives Mantova a 52% chance of winning, Carrarese a 20% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Mantova the favourite.
Will both teams score in Mantova vs Carrarese?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Mantova and Carrarese will score (BTTS).
Will Mantova vs Carrarese have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Mantova and Carrarese?
Record (1 meetings): Mantova 0W | Draws 1 | Carrarese 0W.
What form are Mantova and Carrarese in?
Mantova (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-D-L-W-L. Carrarese (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-D-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Mantova's attacking strength (1.01x league average) is weighed against Carrarese's defensive record (1.17x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.54. Flip it around — Carrarese's attack (0.72x) against Mantova's defence (1.06x) — and the away total comes out at 0.86.
These ratings are built from 36/36 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.6%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.5%), 2-0 (10.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Mantova Win
52%
1.93
28%
3.51
20%
5.10
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
2 – 0
10.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.54
Mantova xG
Total xG
2.40
0.86
Carrarese xG
1.93
52%
Home win
3.51
28%
Draw
5.10
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.15
53%
BTTS No
1.87
Clean Sheet
42%
2.36
22%
4.65
Win to Nil
22%
4.54
4%
23.72
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.1 | 7.8 | 3.4 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 14.0 | 12.0 | 5.2 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.8 | 9.2 | 4.0 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.5 | 4.7 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.1 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Mantova vs Carrarese?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Mantova and Carrarese expected to score?
The model projects 1.54 expected goals for Mantova and 0.86 for Carrarese, a combined total of 2.40.
How confident is the prediction model for Mantova vs Carrarese?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Mantova come into this having played 36 games, going 9W 13D 14L for 1.11 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-L-W-L.
On the other side, Carrarese sit at 1.22 PPG from 36 outings (11W 11D 14L), a run that reads D-D-W-L-W across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.11 PPG for Mantova against 1.22 for Carrarese. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Mantova's home form reads 7W 6D 4L across 17 games on their own ground, a 1.59 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.11 PPG overall — Mantova are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Carrarese have taken 0.53 points per game from 17 outings (1W 6D 10L). That's a step down from their 1.22 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Carrarese's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Mantova come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Mantova are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.53 conceded per game recently; Carrarese are on 1.03 scored and 1.28 conceded.
Defensively: Carrarese in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 36 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Mantova
Current Season
Carrarese
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Mantova and Carrarese in coming into this match?
Mantova have gone 9W 13D 14L in their last 36 games (1.11 PPG), while Carrarese have gone 11W 11D 14L in their last 36 (1.22 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Mantova at home or Carrarese away?
Mantova's home record (1.59 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Mantova at home: 1.59 PPG; Carrarese away: 0.53 PPG.
Have Mantova or Carrarese been keeping clean sheets recently?
Mantova have kept a clean sheet in 19% of their recent games, Carrarese in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 5 times since October 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. The two were last together as recently as 22 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Mantova have gone 1W 1D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Carrarese — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
2
Mantova
3
Draws
0
Carrarese
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Mantova and Carrarese?
From 5 meetings on record, Mantova have won 2, Carrarese have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Mantova and Carrarese last play each other?
They last met on 22 August 2026, when Carrarese 1-2 Mantova.
Who has won more matches between Mantova and Carrarese?
Mantova have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Mantova see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Carrarese are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Mantova 41%, Carrarese 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 41% (Mantova) and 47% (Carrarese).
On the defensive side: Mantova keep a clean sheet in 41% of their matches; Mantova have failed to score in 29% of games; Carrarese in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Mantova home games / Carrarese away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Mantova play Carrarese?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 41% of Mantova's recent matches and 53% of Carrarese's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Mantova vs Carrarese usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 41% of Mantova's recent games and 47% of Carrarese's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Mantova and Carrarese tend to score early?
Mantova have had a goal before half-time in 53% of their recent matches, Carrarese in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Mantova edge out Carrarese 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Mantova beat Carrarese 2-1 at Stadio Danilo Martelli, Regular Season - 38, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Mantova 1.54 xG and Carrarese 0.86 xG, a combined 2.40. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mantova attack 1.01 / defence 1.06 against Carrarese attack 0.72 / defence 1.17, drawn from 36/36 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Mantova 52% | Draw 28% | Carrarese 20%, with Mantova to win its most likely call at 52%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mantova 53%, Carrarese 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Mantova's trading profile (36 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Carrarese's trading profile (36 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Mantova 1.11 PPG, Carrarese 1.22 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Mantova win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.