🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson model rates Mantova at 52%, yet other data sources diverge — this Mantova vs Carrarese fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

✍️ Match Preview

Analysis

Carrarese make the trip to Stadio Danilo Martelli to face Mantova in Serie B, Regular Season - 38. The match kicks off on Friday 9 May 2025 at 19:30 UTC.

Form

Mantova (all games): 3W 2D 5L across 10 Serie B fixtures this term — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W D L W L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

Mantova's form when playing at home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 games at Stadio Danilo Martelli this term (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.

Carrarese have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Serie B outings this season: 3W 5D 2L. Last five: D D W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

Carrarese's away record: 0W 5D 5L from 10 road trips in Serie B this season (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.10 vs 1.40 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.

H2H Analysis

Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Mantova, 0 for Carrarese and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.

The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 20 Oct 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

Trading & In-Play

Mantova — key trading statistics (36 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%.

Carrarese — key trading statistics (36 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Mantova 58% versus Carrarese 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Mantova 53% | Carrarese 44%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Mantova 1.54 xG and Carrarese 0.86 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mantova attack 1.015 / defence 1.061 | Carrarese attack 0.721 / defence 1.169. League average goals — home 1.296 / away 1.122. Data: 36 Mantova games / 36 Carrarese games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Mantova 52% | Draw 28% | Carrarese 20%. Fair-value odds: Mantova 1.92 | Draw 3.57 | Carrarese 5.00. Mantova hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.40. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.40 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, Mantova are the pick at 52% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Mantova if the outright odds are short.

Poisson projects 2.40 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 43% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 47% on No. Form rates are neutral: Mantova 50% | Carrarese 60%.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights