Mantova 1-1 Brescia – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Mantova at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Mantova vs Brescia fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie B encounter, Regular Season - 8 sees Brescia travel to Stadio Danilo Martelli to take on Mantova. The game is scheduled for Sunday 6 October 2024, 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Mantova stand at 3W 1D 3L from 7 Serie B matches — 1.43 PPG. Last five: L W L W L. They are averaging 1.29 goals per game and conceding 1.57 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 7 outings provides some defensive foundation. Mantova have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Stadio Danilo Martelli, Mantova have gone 3W 0D 0L this season (3 games, 3.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.67 goals scored and 0.67 conceded per game. 2 clean sheets from 3 home games (67%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Danilo Martelli. Their home PPG of 3.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.43 — Mantova are significantly better at Stadio Danilo Martelli than their overall form suggests.
Brescia — All Games: 5W 0D 5L from 10 Serie B fixtures this season — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L W W L W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.50. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Brescia have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Brescia have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Mantova 1.43 PPG, Brescia 1.50 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
In-Play Data
Mantova trading profile (7 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games; Over 3.5 in 43%.
Brescia trading profile (7 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Mantova 43% versus Brescia 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Mantova 43% | Brescia 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Mantova 1.32 xG and Brescia 1.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mantova attack 0.957 / defence 0.992 | Brescia attack 0.918 / defence 1.062. League average goals — home 1.295 / away 1.114. Data: 7 Mantova games / 45 Brescia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Mantova 42% | Draw 30% | Brescia 28%. Fair-value odds: Mantova 2.38 | Draw 3.33 | Brescia 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.33. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.33 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Mantova as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Mantova offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.33 combined xG gives a 41% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 48% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Mantova 33% | Brescia 70%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Mantova vs Brescia | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Stadio Danilo Martelli • Kick-off: Sunday 6 Oct 2024, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Mantova 42% | Draw 30% | Brescia 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 48% | xG Mantova 1.32 / Brescia 1.01 • Poisson strength factors: Mantova attack 0.957 / def 0.992 | Brescia attack 0.918 / def 1.062 | league avg home 1.295 / away 1.114 • Poisson stance: Mantova (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.32
Mantova xG
Expected Goals
1.01
Brescia xG
48%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Mantova vs Brescia kick off?
Mantova vs Brescia kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 6 October 2024 at Stadio Danilo Martelli.
What was the final score in Mantova vs Brescia?
Mantova 1 - 1 Brescia.
Where is Mantova vs Brescia being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Danilo Martelli.
What competition is Mantova vs Brescia part of?
Mantova vs Brescia is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Mantova vs Brescia?
Our statistical model gives Mantova a 42% chance of winning, Brescia a 28% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Mantova the favourite.
Will both teams score in Mantova vs Brescia?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Mantova and Brescia will score (BTTS).
Will Mantova vs Brescia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Mantova and Brescia?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Mantova and Brescia in?
Mantova (all comps): 3W-1D-3L in 7 | 1.43 PPG | GF 1.29 / GA 1.57 | L5 L-W-L-W-L. Brescia (all comps): 5W-0D-5L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Mantova's attack rating (0.96) and Brescia's defence rating (1.06), the model arrives at 1.32 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Brescia's attack versus Mantova's defence, projects 1.01 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 7/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.4%), 1-0 (11.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Mantova Win
42%
2.36
30%
3.31
28%
3.64
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.8%
Home win
0 – 1
9.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.32
Mantova xG
Total xG
2.33
1.01
Brescia xG
2.36
42%
Home win
3.31
30%
Draw
3.64
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.09
52%
BTTS No
1.92
Clean Sheet
36%
2.76
27%
3.73
Win to Nil
15%
6.52
7%
13.57
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.7 | 9.9 | 5.0 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.8 | 13.0 | 6.6 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.4 | 8.5 | 4.3 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 3.8 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Mantova vs Brescia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Mantova and Brescia expected to score?
The model projects 1.32 expected goals for Mantova and 1.01 for Brescia, a combined total of 2.33.
How confident is the prediction model for Mantova vs Brescia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Mantova come into this having played 7 games, going 3W 1D 3L for 1.43 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-W-L. It's still early in the season for Mantova, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Brescia sit at 1.71 PPG from 7 outings (4W 0D 3L), a run that reads L-W-W-L-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Brescia, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Mantova on 1.43 PPG, Brescia on 1.71. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Mantova's home form reads 3W 0D 0L across 3 games on their own ground, a 3.00 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.43 PPG overall — Mantova are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Brescia have taken 1.00 points per game from 3 outings (1W 0D 2L). That's a step down from their 1.71 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Brescia's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Mantova come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Mantova are averaging 1.29 goals scored and 1.57 conceded per game recently; Brescia are on 1.57 scored and 1.14 conceded.
Last 7 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Mantova
Early Season
Brescia
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Mantova and Brescia in coming into this match?
Mantova have gone 3W 1D 3L in their last 7 games (1.43 PPG), while Brescia have gone 4W 0D 3L in their last 7 (1.71 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Mantova at home or Brescia away?
Mantova's home record (3.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Mantova at home: 3.00 PPG; Brescia away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Mantova and Brescia runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 5 April 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Mantova
1
Draws
0
Brescia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Mantova and Brescia?
From 2 meetings on record, Mantova have won 1, Brescia have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Mantova and Brescia last play each other?
They last met on 5 April 2025, when Brescia 1-2 Mantova.
Who has won more matches between Mantova and Brescia?
Mantova have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Mantova see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Brescia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Mantova 33%, Brescia 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Mantova) and 67% (Brescia).
On the defensive side: Mantova keep a clean sheet in 67% of their matches; Brescia in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Mantova home games / Brescia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Mantova play Brescia?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Mantova's recent matches and 67% of Brescia's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Mantova vs Brescia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Mantova's recent games and 67% of Brescia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Mantova and Brescia tend to score early?
Mantova have had a goal before half-time in 33% of their recent matches, Brescia in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Mantova and Brescia share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Mantova and Brescia finished level at 1-1 at Stadio Danilo Martelli, Regular Season - 8, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Mantova 1.32 xG and Brescia 1.01 xG, a combined 2.33. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mantova attack 0.96 / defence 0.99 against Brescia attack 0.92 / defence 1.06, drawn from 7/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Mantova 42% | Draw 30% | Brescia 28%, with Mantova to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mantova 43%, Brescia 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Mantova's trading profile (7 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did.
Brescia's trading profile (7 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Mantova 1.43 PPG, Brescia 1.71 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.