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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Mantova edge out Bari 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Mantova beat Bari 2-1 at Stadio Danilo Martelli, Regular Season - 23, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Mantova 1.43 xG and Bari 1.27 xG, a combined 2.70. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mantova attack 0.98 / defence 1.49 against Bari attack 0.84 / defence 1.13, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Mantova 40% | Draw 27% | Bari 33%, with Mantova to win its most likely call at 40%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mantova 52%, Bari 38%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Mantova's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.

Bari's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Mantova 1.07 PPG, Bari 1.13 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Mantova win broke the near-deadlock.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights