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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Bari edge out Mantova 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Bari beat Mantova 0-1 at Stadio Danilo Martelli, Regular Season - 27, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Mantova 1.01 xG and Bari 1.14 xG, a combined 2.15. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Mantova fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mantova attack 0.84 / defence 1.30 against Bari attack 0.81 / defence 0.97, drawn from 26/64 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Mantova 30% | Draw 34% | Bari 36%, with Bari to win its most likely call at 36%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 66% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mantova 50%, Bari 31%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Mantova's trading profile (26 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Bari's trading profile (26 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Mantova 1.12 PPG, Bari 1.31 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Bari win broke the near-deadlock. Mantova (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.17 scoring average — below par going forward. Bari (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.92 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights