Lecco 1-2 Venezia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Venezia at 58% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Lecco vs Venezia encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadio Rigamonti Ceppi plays host to Lecco versus Venezia in Serie B, Regular Season - 34. Kick-off: Saturday 20 April 2024 at 15:15 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Lecco have collected 0.60 PPG across 10 Serie B outings this season: 1W 3D 6L. Last five: L L D D W. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
At home at Stadio Rigamonti Ceppi, Lecco have gone 3W 1D 6L this season (10 games, 1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
Venezia (all games): 6W 2D 2L across 10 Serie B outings this term — 2.00 points per game. Last five: W W L D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
When travelling in Serie B this season, Venezia have posted 4W 2D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.40 PPG. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.40 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Venezia arrive in superior form — a 1.40 PPG advantage (2.00 vs 0.60) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Lecco, 0 for Venezia and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 4.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 23 Dec 2023, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Lecco goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (33 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
Venezia goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (33 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 44% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lecco 54% versus Venezia 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lecco 52% | Venezia 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lecco 0.78 xG and Venezia 1.73 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lecco attack 0.733 / defence 1.234 | Venezia attack 1.147 / defence 0.879. League average goals — home 1.215 / away 1.222. Lecco's attack strength of 0.733 is below the league average — the 0.78 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 33 Lecco games / 71 Venezia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lecco 15% | Draw 27% | Venezia 58%. Fair-value odds: Lecco 6.67 | Draw 3.70 | Venezia 1.72. The model has a clear lean to Venezia (58%) — a 43pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.51. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.51 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Venezia at 58% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 27% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.51 combined xG gives a 46% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 46%. Form rates are neutral: Lecco 50% | Venezia 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lecco vs Venezia | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 34 | Venue: Stadio Rigamonti Ceppi • Kick-off: Saturday 20 Apr 2024, 15:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lecco 15% | Draw 27% | Venezia 58% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 46% | xG Lecco 0.78 / Venezia 1.73 • Poisson strength factors: Lecco attack 0.733 / def 1.234 | Venezia attack 1.147 / def 0.879 | league avg home 1.215 / away 1.222 • Poisson stance: Venezia (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.78
Lecco xG
Expected Goals
1.73
Venezia xG
46%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lecco vs Venezia kick off?
Lecco vs Venezia kicked off at 15:15 on Saturday 20 April 2024 at Stadio Rigamonti Ceppi.
What was the final score in Lecco vs Venezia?
Lecco 1 - 2 Venezia.
Where is Lecco vs Venezia being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Rigamonti Ceppi.
What competition is Lecco vs Venezia part of?
Lecco vs Venezia is a Regular Season - 34 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Lecco vs Venezia?
Our statistical model gives Lecco a 15% chance of winning, Venezia a 58% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Venezia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lecco vs Venezia?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Lecco and Venezia will score (BTTS).
Will Lecco vs Venezia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lecco and Venezia?
Record (1 meetings): Lecco 0W | Draws 1 | Venezia 0W.
What form are Lecco and Venezia in?
Lecco (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-D-D-W. Venezia (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Lecco's attack rating (0.73) and Venezia's defence rating (0.88), the model arrives at 0.78 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Venezia's attack (1.15x) against Lecco's defence (1.23x) — and the away total comes out at 1.73.
These ratings are built from 33/71 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.6%. Close behind: 1-1 (12.4%), 0-2 (12.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Venezia Win
15%
6.72
27%
3.71
58%
1.72
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.0%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
12.1%
Away win
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.78
Lecco xG
Total xG
2.51
1.73
Venezia xG
6.72
15%
Home win
3.71
27%
Draw
1.72
58%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.16
54%
BTTS No
1.87
Clean Sheet
18%
5.64
46%
2.19
Win to Nil
3%
37.93
27%
3.76
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.1 | 14.0 | 12.1 | 7.0 | 3.0 | 1.0 |
| 1 | 6.3 | 11.0 | 9.5 | 5.5 | 2.4 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 2.5 | 4.3 | 3.7 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 0.6 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lecco vs Venezia?
Our Poisson model rates 0-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are Lecco and Venezia expected to score?
The model projects 0.78 expected goals for Lecco and 1.73 for Venezia, a combined total of 2.51.
How confident is the prediction model for Lecco vs Venezia?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Lecco's recent record stands at 6W 8D 19L from 33 games, a 0.79 PPG return, with L-L-D-D-W in the last five.
Venezia, meanwhile, have gone 18W 7D 8L across 33 games — 1.85 PPG, with W-W-L-D-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Venezia by 1.06 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Lecco heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Lecco have managed 4W 2D 10L from 16 games — 0.88 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Venezia's away record stands at 7W 4D 5L across 16 trips, a 1.56 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Venezia come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Lecco are averaging 0.94 goals scored and 1.82 conceded per game recently; Venezia are on 1.82 scored and 1.15 conceded.
Defensively: Venezia in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 33 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lecco
Current Season
Venezia
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lecco and Venezia in coming into this match?
Lecco have gone 6W 8D 19L in their last 33 games (0.79 PPG), while Venezia have gone 18W 7D 8L in their last 33 (1.85 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lecco at home or Venezia away?
Venezia's away record (1.56 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lecco at home: 0.88 PPG; Venezia away: 1.56 PPG.
Have Lecco or Venezia been keeping clean sheets recently?
Lecco have kept a clean sheet in 18% of their recent games, Venezia in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 20 April 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Lecco
1
Draws
1
Venezia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lecco and Venezia?
From 2 meetings on record, Lecco have won 0, Venezia have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Lecco and Venezia last play each other?
They last met on 20 April 2024, when Lecco 1-2 Venezia.
Who has won more matches between Lecco and Venezia?
Venezia have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Lecco are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
Venezia see a goal before the break in 44% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lecco 50%, Venezia 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Lecco) and 62% (Venezia). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 31% and 19% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Venezia in 44%; Lecco have failed to score in 38% of games; Venezia in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lecco home games / Venezia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lecco play Venezia?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Lecco's recent matches and 44% of Venezia's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Lecco vs Venezia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Lecco's matches and 62% of Venezia's.
Do Lecco and Venezia tend to score early?
Lecco have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Venezia in 44% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Venezia edge out Lecco 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Venezia beat Lecco 1-2 at Stadio Rigamonti Ceppi, Regular Season - 34, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lecco 0.78 xG and Venezia 1.73 xG, a combined 2.51. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lecco attack 0.73 / defence 1.23 against Venezia attack 1.15 / defence 0.88, drawn from 33/71 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lecco 15% | Draw 27% | Venezia 58%, with Venezia to win its most likely call at 58%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lecco 52%, Venezia 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lecco's trading profile (33 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Venezia's trading profile (33 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Venezia arrived the stronger side — 1.85 PPG against 0.79. That form edge translated into the three points.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.