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Poisson rates Juve Stabia at 59% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Juve Stabia vs Virtus Entella encounter.

✍️ Match Preview

Pre-Match Analysis

Juve Stabia and Virtus Entella meet at Stadio Romeo Menti in Serie B, Regular Season - 21. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 24 January 2026 at 14:00 UTC.

Current Form

Juve Stabia's overall Serie B record this term: 4W 4D 2L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: W D W D W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Juve Stabia, so this record blends games from this season and last.

In front of their own supporters this season, Juve Stabia have posted 5W 5D 0L at Stadio Romeo Menti — 2.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 7 clean sheets from 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Romeo Menti. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.

Virtus Entella (all games): 2W 4D 4L across 10 Serie B outings this term — 1.00 points per game. Last five: L D L W D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Virtus Entella, so this record blends games from this season and last.

On the road, Virtus Entella have gone 0W 3D 7L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.30 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.30 is notably below their overall 1.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

The points-per-game gap of 0.60 in Juve Stabia's favour (1.60 vs 1.00) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.

Head-to-Head

Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Juve Stabia 0W, Virtus Entella 0W, 1D.

The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 23 Aug 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

Trading & In-Play

Juve Stabia — key trading statistics (20 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 40% of the time; BTTS occurs in 30% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time; they fail to score in 35% of games.

Virtus Entella — key trading statistics (20 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Juve Stabia 40% versus Virtus Entella 55%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Juve Stabia 45% | Virtus Entella 30%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Juve Stabia 1.55 xG and Virtus Entella 0.63 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Juve Stabia attack 0.957 / defence 0.824 | Virtus Entella attack 0.732 / defence 1.246. League average goals — home 1.297 / away 1.041. Virtus Entella bring a strong defensive rating of 1.246 — this is suppressing Juve Stabia's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 58 Juve Stabia games / 20 Virtus Entella games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Juve Stabia 59% | Draw 26% | Virtus Entella 15%. Fair-value odds: Juve Stabia 1.69 | Draw 3.85 | Virtus Entella 6.67. The model has a clear lean to Juve Stabia (59%) — a 44pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 37% | Total xG 2.17. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.17 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 37% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Juve Stabia at 59% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

The Poisson model projects 2.17 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 37% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.

Poisson assigns a 37% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Juve Stabia 30% | Virtus Entella 50% BTTS from recent games.

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