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Stalemate at Juve Stabia's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Juve Stabia and Venezia finished level at 0-0 at Stadio Romeo Menti, Regular Season - 2, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Juve Stabia 1.53 xG and Venezia 0.88 xG, a combined 2.41. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Juve Stabia fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Venezia landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Juve Stabia attack 1.01 / defence 0.92 against Venezia attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 39/1 games (Blended).

On the result, the model split it Juve Stabia 51% | Draw 29% | Venezia 20%, with Juve Stabia to win its most likely call at 51%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 71% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Juve Stabia 49%, Venezia 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Juve Stabia's trading profile (39 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Venezia's trading profile (39 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 44% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, Juve Stabia arrived the stronger side — 1.41 PPG against 0.82. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Juve Stabia (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.37 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.84 average — tighter than their form line. Venezia (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.79 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights