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Prediction vindicated as Juve Stabia edge out Sudtirol 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Juve Stabia beat Sudtirol 1-0 at Stadio Romeo Menti, Regular Season - 18, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Juve Stabia 1.15 xG and Sudtirol 0.69 xG, a combined 1.84. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Juve Stabia attack 0.93 / defence 0.72 against Sudtirol attack 0.88 / defence 0.93, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Juve Stabia 45% | Draw 34% | Sudtirol 20%, with Juve Stabia to win its most likely call at 45%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 28%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 56% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 35% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Juve Stabia 49%, Sudtirol 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Juve Stabia's trading profile (55 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.

Sudtirol's trading profile (55 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Juve Stabia 1.40 PPG, Sudtirol 1.13 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Juve Stabia win broke the near-deadlock. Sudtirol (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.18 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights