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Juve Stabia cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Spezia.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Juve Stabia beat Spezia 3-1 at Stadio Romeo Menti, Regular Season - 32, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Juve Stabia 1.45 xG and Spezia 1.04 xG, a combined 2.48. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Juve Stabia beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Juve Stabia attack 0.94 / defence 1.04 against Spezia attack 0.90 / defence 1.14, drawn from 69/69 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Juve Stabia 45% | Draw 29% | Spezia 26%, with Juve Stabia to win its most likely call at 45%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. Over 3.5 was 24% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Juve Stabia 47%, Spezia 40%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Juve Stabia's trading profile (72 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.

Spezia's trading profile (72 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Juve Stabia 1.43 PPG, Spezia 1.42 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Juve Stabia win broke the near-deadlock. Juve Stabia (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.31 average — above their attacking norm. Spezia (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.03 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights