Juve Stabia vs Sampdoria – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Juve Stabia at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Juve Stabia vs Sampdoria fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Juve Stabia host Sampdoria at Stadio Romeo Menti in Serie B, Regular Season - 20. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 9 January 2027 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Juve Stabia — All Games: 2W 4D 4L from 10 Serie B outings this season, averaging 1.00 points per game. Last five: L L W L D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Juve Stabia have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Stadio Romeo Menti, Juve Stabia have gone 2W 5D 3L this season (10 games, 1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Sampdoria stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 Serie B matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L D L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Sampdoria have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Sampdoria's away record: 1W 3D 6L from 10 road trips in Serie B this season (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Juve Stabia 1.00 PPG, Sampdoria 1.10 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 5 previous meetings, Juve Stabia have won 2, Sampdoria 1, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.8 per contest from 5 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 29 Aug 2026, ended 2–1 with Juve Stabia winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.8 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Juve Stabia in-play and half-time data (42 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games).
Sampdoria in-play and half-time data (42 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Juve Stabia 57% versus Sampdoria 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Juve Stabia 48% | Sampdoria 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Juve Stabia 1.28 xG and Sampdoria 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Juve Stabia attack 0.847 / defence 1.175 | Sampdoria attack 0.795 / defence 1.099. League average goals — home 1.375 / away 1.161. Data: 42 Juve Stabia games / 42 Sampdoria games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Juve Stabia 41% | Draw 28% | Sampdoria 31%. Fair-value odds: Juve Stabia 2.44 | Draw 3.57 | Sampdoria 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.37. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.37 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Juve Stabia at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Juve Stabia offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.37 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 42% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by H2H averaging 1.8 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 48%. This conflicts with form data: Juve Stabia 70% | Sampdoria 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Juve Stabia vs Sampdoria | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Stadio Romeo Menti • Kick-off: Saturday 9 Jan 2027, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Juve Stabia 41% | Draw 28% | Sampdoria 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 48% | xG Juve Stabia 1.28 / Sampdoria 1.09 • Poisson strength factors: Juve Stabia attack 0.847 / def 1.175 | Sampdoria attack 0.795 / def 1.099 | league avg home 1.375 / away 1.161 • Poisson stance: Juve Stabia (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.28
Juve Stabia xG
Expected Goals
1.09
Sampdoria xG
48%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Juve Stabia vs Sampdoria kick off?
Juve Stabia vs Sampdoria is scheduled to kick off at 14:00 on Saturday 9 January 2027 at Stadio Romeo Menti.
Where is Juve Stabia vs Sampdoria being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Romeo Menti.
What competition is Juve Stabia vs Sampdoria part of?
Juve Stabia vs Sampdoria is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Juve Stabia vs Sampdoria?
Our statistical model gives Juve Stabia a 41% chance of winning, Sampdoria a 31% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Juve Stabia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Juve Stabia vs Sampdoria?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Juve Stabia and Sampdoria will score (BTTS).
Will Juve Stabia vs Sampdoria have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Juve Stabia and Sampdoria?
Record (5 meetings): Juve Stabia 2W | Draws 2 | Sampdoria 1W.
What form are Juve Stabia and Sampdoria in?
Juve Stabia (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-W-L-D. Sampdoria (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-D-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Juve Stabia's attacking strength (0.85x league average) is weighed against Sampdoria's defensive record (1.10x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.28. The same calculation in reverse, Sampdoria's attack versus Juve Stabia's defence, projects 1.09 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 42/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.1%), 1-0 (10.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Juve Stabia Win
41%
2.45
28%
3.60
31%
3.18
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.0%
Home win
0 – 1
10.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.28
Juve Stabia xG
Total xG
2.37
1.09
Sampdoria xG
2.45
41%
Home win
3.60
28%
Draw
3.18
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.09
52%
BTTS No
1.92
Clean Sheet
34%
2.96
28%
3.60
Win to Nil
14%
7.25
9%
11.45
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.4 | 10.2 | 5.5 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.0 | 13.0 | 7.1 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 8.3 | 4.5 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 3.6 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Juve Stabia vs Sampdoria?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Juve Stabia and Sampdoria expected to score?
The model projects 1.28 expected goals for Juve Stabia and 1.09 for Sampdoria, a combined total of 2.37.
How confident is the prediction model for Juve Stabia vs Sampdoria?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Juve Stabia's recent record stands at 13W 17D 12L from 42 games, a 1.33 PPG return, with L-L-W-L-D in the last five. It's still early in the season for Juve Stabia, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Sampdoria, meanwhile, have gone 11W 12D 19L across 42 games — 1.07 PPG, with L-D-L-L-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Sampdoria, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Juve Stabia on 1.33 PPG, Sampdoria on 1.07. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Juve Stabia have managed 8W 8D 3L from 19 games — 1.68 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Sampdoria's away record stands at 2W 6D 11L across 19 trips, a 0.63 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.07 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Sampdoria's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Juve Stabia come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Juve Stabia are averaging 1.19 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game recently; Sampdoria are on 0.90 scored and 1.33 conceded.
Last 42 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Juve Stabia
Early Season
Sampdoria
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Juve Stabia and Sampdoria in coming into this match?
Juve Stabia have gone 13W 17D 12L in their last 42 games (1.33 PPG), while Sampdoria have gone 11W 12D 19L in their last 42 (1.07 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Juve Stabia at home or Sampdoria away?
Juve Stabia's home record (1.68 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Juve Stabia at home: 1.68 PPG; Sampdoria away: 0.63 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
5 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. The two were last together as recently as 29 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Juve Stabia's record when hosting Sampdoria specifically: 0W 2D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
2
Juve Stabia
2
Draws
1
Sampdoria
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Juve Stabia and Sampdoria?
From 5 meetings on record, Juve Stabia have won 2, Sampdoria have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Juve Stabia and Sampdoria last play each other?
They last met on 29 August 2026, when Sampdoria 1-2 Juve Stabia.
Who has won more matches between Juve Stabia and Sampdoria?
Juve Stabia have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Juve Stabia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Sampdoria see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Juve Stabia 53%, Sampdoria 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Juve Stabia) and 42% (Sampdoria).
On the defensive side: Juve Stabia keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches; Sampdoria in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Juve Stabia home games / Sampdoria away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Juve Stabia play Sampdoria?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 53% of Juve Stabia's games and 58% of Sampdoria's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Juve Stabia vs Sampdoria usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Juve Stabia's recent games and 42% of Sampdoria's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Juve Stabia and Sampdoria tend to score early?
Juve Stabia have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Sampdoria in 53% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.