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Stalemate at Juve Stabia's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Juve Stabia and Sampdoria finished level at 0-0 at Stadio Comunale Romeo Menti, Regular Season - 34, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Juve Stabia 1.49 xG and Sampdoria 1.07 xG, a combined 2.56. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Juve Stabia fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Sampdoria landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Juve Stabia attack 0.97 / defence 0.96 against Sampdoria attack 0.96 / defence 1.17, drawn from 37/75 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Juve Stabia 46% | Draw 28% | Sampdoria 26%, with Juve Stabia to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 74% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Juve Stabia 49%, Sampdoria 40%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Juve Stabia's trading profile (37 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Sampdoria's trading profile (37 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Juve Stabia 1.46 PPG, Sampdoria 1.08 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Juve Stabia (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.39 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Sampdoria (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.39 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.89 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights