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Prediction vindicated as Juve Stabia edge out Salernitana 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Juve Stabia beat Salernitana 1-0 at Stadio Comunale Romeo Menti, Regular Season - 32, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Juve Stabia 1.46 xG and Salernitana 0.66 xG, a combined 2.11. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Juve Stabia attack 1.07 / defence 1.00 against Salernitana attack 0.57 / defence 1.10, drawn from 31/31 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Juve Stabia 55% | Draw 30% | Salernitana 15%, with Juve Stabia to win its most likely call at 55%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 64% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Juve Stabia 55%, Salernitana 39%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Juve Stabia's trading profile (31 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.

Salernitana's trading profile (31 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 42% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, Juve Stabia arrived the stronger side — 1.48 PPG against 0.97. Form held, and they took the win. Juve Stabia (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.07 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights