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Stalemate at Juve Stabia's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Stadio Romeo Menti, Regular Season - 3, as Juve Stabia and Reggiana drew 0-0 in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Juve Stabia 1.25 xG and Reggiana 0.94 xG, a combined 2.18. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Juve Stabia fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Reggiana landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Juve Stabia attack 0.88 / defence 0.85 against Reggiana attack 1.05 / defence 1.16, drawn from 40/40 games (Blended).

On the result, the model split it Juve Stabia 40% | Draw 37% | Reggiana 24%, with Juve Stabia to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 37%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 68% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Juve Stabia 48%, Reggiana 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Juve Stabia's trading profile (40 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Reggiana's trading profile (40 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Juve Stabia 1.40 PPG, Reggiana 1.18 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Juve Stabia (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.30 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.80 average — tighter than their form line. Reggiana (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.05 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights