Juve Stabia 2-0 Pisa – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Pisa at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Juve Stabia vs Pisa fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Pisa make the trip to Stadio Comunale Romeo Menti to face Juve Stabia in Serie B, Regular Season - 7. The match kicks off on Sunday 29 September 2024 at 14:00 UTC.
Current Form
Juve Stabia's overall Serie B record this term: 2W 2D 2L from 6 games (1.33 PPG). Last five: D W D L L. They are averaging 0.83 goals per game and conceding 1.17 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 6 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 33% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Juve Stabia have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Pisa have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 Serie B outings this season: 4W 4D 2L. Last five: W D W W W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.50. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Pisa have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Pisa have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.33 PPG for Juve Stabia against 1.60 for Pisa. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Trading
Juve Stabia half-time and goal-timing data (6 games): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time; they fail to score in 50% of games.
Pisa half-time and goal-timing data (6 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; they lead at the break 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 83% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Juve Stabia 33% versus Pisa 83%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Juve Stabia 50% | Pisa 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Juve Stabia 1.15 xG and Pisa 1.62 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Juve Stabia attack 0.835 / defence 1.275 | Pisa attack 1.166 / defence 1.121. League average goals — home 1.225 / away 1.089. Data: 6 Juve Stabia games / 44 Pisa games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Juve Stabia 25% | Draw 29% | Pisa 46%. Fair-value odds: Juve Stabia 4.00 | Draw 3.45 | Pisa 2.17. Pisa hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.77. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.77 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Pisa are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Pisa if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.77 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 52% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Juve Stabia 33% | Pisa 90% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Juve Stabia vs Pisa | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Stadio Comunale Romeo Menti • Kick-off: Sunday 29 Sep 2024, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Juve Stabia 25% | Draw 29% | Pisa 46% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 57% | xG Juve Stabia 1.15 / Pisa 1.62 • Poisson strength factors: Juve Stabia attack 0.835 / def 1.275 | Pisa attack 1.166 / def 1.121 | league avg home 1.225 / away 1.089 • Poisson stance: Pisa (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.15
Juve Stabia xG
Expected Goals
1.62
Pisa xG
57%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Juve Stabia vs Pisa kick off?
Juve Stabia vs Pisa kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 29 September 2024 at Stadio Comunale Romeo Menti.
What was the final score in Juve Stabia vs Pisa?
Juve Stabia 2 - 0 Pisa.
Where is Juve Stabia vs Pisa being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Comunale Romeo Menti.
What competition is Juve Stabia vs Pisa part of?
Juve Stabia vs Pisa is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Juve Stabia vs Pisa?
Our statistical model gives Juve Stabia a 25% chance of winning, Pisa a 46% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Pisa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Juve Stabia vs Pisa?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Juve Stabia and Pisa will score (BTTS).
Will Juve Stabia vs Pisa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Juve Stabia and Pisa?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Juve Stabia and Pisa in?
Juve Stabia (all comps): 2W-2D-2L in 6 | 1.33 PPG | GF 0.83 / GA 1.17 | L5 D-W-D-L-L. Pisa (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-D-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Juve Stabia's attack at 0.83x the league average against Pisa's defence at 1.12x — combine the two and it projects 1.15 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Pisa's attack (1.17x) against Juve Stabia's defence (1.27x) — and the away total comes out at 1.62.
These ratings are built from 6/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.5%), 0-1 (8.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Pisa Win
25%
3.99
29%
3.51
46%
2.16
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.2%
Away win
1 – 2
9.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.15
Juve Stabia xG
Total xG
2.77
1.62
Pisa xG
3.99
25%
Home win
3.51
29%
Draw
2.16
46%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.77
43%
BTTS No
2.31
Clean Sheet
20%
5.04
32%
3.15
Win to Nil
5%
20.11
15%
6.79
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.3 | 10.2 | 8.2 | 4.4 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 7.2 | 11.7 | 9.5 | 5.1 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.1 | 6.7 | 5.4 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 2.6 | 2.1 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Juve Stabia vs Pisa?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Juve Stabia and Pisa expected to score?
The model projects 1.15 expected goals for Juve Stabia and 1.62 for Pisa, a combined total of 2.77.
How confident is the prediction model for Juve Stabia vs Pisa?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 6 outings, Juve Stabia have picked up 1.33 PPG on a 2W 2D 2L record — D-W-D-L-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Juve Stabia, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Pisa's form line: 4W 2D 0L from 6 games, 2.33 PPG, last five W-D-W-W-W. It's still early in the season for Pisa, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Pisa are the form team by 1.00 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Juve Stabia.
Attack vs Defence
Juve Stabia are averaging 0.83 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game recently; Pisa are on 2.00 scored and 1.17 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Pisa in 83%.
Defensively: Juve Stabia have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 6 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Juve Stabia
Early Season
Pisa
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Juve Stabia and Pisa in coming into this match?
Juve Stabia have gone 2W 2D 2L in their last 6 games (1.33 PPG), while Pisa have gone 4W 2D 0L in their last 6 (2.33 PPG).
Have Juve Stabia or Pisa been keeping clean sheets recently?
Juve Stabia have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their recent games, Pisa in 17%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 22 February 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Juve Stabia
0
Draws
1
Pisa
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Juve Stabia and Pisa?
From 2 meetings on record, Juve Stabia have won 1, Pisa have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Juve Stabia and Pisa last play each other?
They last met on 22 February 2025, when Pisa 3-1 Juve Stabia.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Juve Stabia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Pisa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Juve Stabia 33%, Pisa 83% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Juve Stabia) and 67% (Pisa). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Juve Stabia keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Juve Stabia have failed to score in 50% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Juve Stabia home games / Pisa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Juve Stabia play Pisa?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 33% of Juve Stabia's games and 83% of Pisa's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Juve Stabia vs Pisa usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Juve Stabia's matches and 67% of Pisa's.
Do Juve Stabia and Pisa tend to score early?
Juve Stabia have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Pisa in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Juve Stabia cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Pisa.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Juve Stabia beat Pisa 2-0 at Stadio Comunale Romeo Menti, Regular Season - 7, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Juve Stabia 1.15 xG and Pisa 1.62 xG, a combined 2.77. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Juve Stabia beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Pisa landed 1.6 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Juve Stabia attack 0.83 / defence 1.27 against Pisa attack 1.17 / defence 1.12, drawn from 6/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Juve Stabia 25% | Draw 29% | Pisa 46%, with Pisa to win its most likely call at 46%. Instead the game produced a Juve Stabia win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Juve Stabia 50%, Pisa 67%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Juve Stabia's trading profile (6 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and duly kept one.
Pisa's trading profile (6 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 83% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Pisa arrived the stronger side — 2.33 PPG against 1.33. Form was overturned, with Juve Stabia winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Juve Stabia scored 2 against a 0.83 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.17 average — tighter than their form line. Pisa managed 0 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.17 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.