Juve Stabia vs Palermo – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Palermo at 41% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Juve Stabia vs Palermo encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie B encounter, Regular Season - 30 sees Palermo travel to Stadio Romeo Menti to take on Juve Stabia. The game is scheduled for Saturday 13 March 2027, 14:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Juve Stabia — All Games: 4W 4D 2L from 10 Serie B outings this season, averaging 1.60 points per game. Last five: W W L D W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Juve Stabia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Juve Stabia have posted 4W 3D 3L at Stadio Romeo Menti — 1.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Palermo stand at 7W 3D 0L from 10 Serie B matches — 2.40 PPG. Last five: W W D W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.40 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Palermo, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Serie B this season, Palermo have posted 3W 5D 2L from 10 away outings — 1.40 PPG. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.40 is notably below their overall 2.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Palermo — 0.80 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.40 vs 1.60). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 6 previous meetings, Juve Stabia have won 2, Palermo 3, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 23 Aug 2026, ended 0–1 with Palermo winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Juve Stabia in-play tendencies (51 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games).
Palermo in-play tendencies (51 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; they lead at the break 45% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Juve Stabia 53% versus Palermo 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Juve Stabia 43% | Palermo 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Juve Stabia 1.21 xG and Palermo 1.47 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Juve Stabia attack 0.868 / defence 0.881 | Palermo attack 1.347 / defence 1.108. League average goals — home 1.262 / away 1.236. Palermo have an above-average attack strength of 1.347 — the away xG of 1.47 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 49 Juve Stabia games / 49 Palermo games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Juve Stabia 30% | Draw 29% | Palermo 41%. Fair-value odds: Juve Stabia 3.33 | Draw 3.45 | Palermo 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.68. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.68 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Palermo at 41% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Palermo offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.68 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 50% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Juve Stabia 40% | Palermo 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Juve Stabia vs Palermo | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Stadio Romeo Menti • Kick-off: Saturday 13 Mar 2027, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Juve Stabia 30% | Draw 29% | Palermo 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 56% | xG Juve Stabia 1.21 / Palermo 1.47 • Poisson strength factors: Juve Stabia attack 0.868 / def 0.881 | Palermo attack 1.347 / def 1.108 | league avg home 1.262 / away 1.236 • Poisson stance: Palermo (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.21
Juve Stabia xG
Expected Goals
1.47
Palermo xG
56%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Juve Stabia vs Palermo kick off?
Juve Stabia vs Palermo is scheduled to kick off at 14:00 on Saturday 13 March 2027 at Stadio Romeo Menti.
Where is Juve Stabia vs Palermo being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Romeo Menti.
What competition is Juve Stabia vs Palermo part of?
Juve Stabia vs Palermo is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Juve Stabia vs Palermo?
Our statistical model gives Juve Stabia a 30% chance of winning, Palermo a 41% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Palermo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Juve Stabia vs Palermo?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Juve Stabia and Palermo will score (BTTS).
Will Juve Stabia vs Palermo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Juve Stabia and Palermo?
Record (6 meetings): Juve Stabia 2W | Draws 1 | Palermo 3W.
What form are Juve Stabia and Palermo in?
Juve Stabia (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-L-D-W. Palermo (all comps): 7W-3D-0L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Juve Stabia's attack at 0.87x the league average against Palermo's defence at 1.11x — combine the two and it projects 1.21 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Palermo's attack versus Juve Stabia's defence, projects 1.47 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 49/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.9%), 0-1 (8.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Palermo Win
30%
3.37
29%
3.45
41%
2.42
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.1%
Away win
1 – 2
8.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.21
Juve Stabia xG
Total xG
2.68
1.47
Palermo xG
3.37
30%
Home win
3.45
29%
Draw
2.42
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.79
44%
BTTS No
2.26
Clean Sheet
23%
4.33
30%
3.37
Win to Nil
7%
14.59
12%
8.15
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.9 | 10.1 | 7.4 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.3 | 12.2 | 8.9 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.1 | 7.4 | 5.4 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 3.0 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Juve Stabia vs Palermo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Juve Stabia and Palermo expected to score?
The model projects 1.21 expected goals for Juve Stabia and 1.47 for Palermo, a combined total of 2.68.
How confident is the prediction model for Juve Stabia vs Palermo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Juve Stabia's recent record stands at 16W 22D 13L from 51 games, a 1.37 PPG return, with W-W-L-D-W in the last five. The sample for Juve Stabia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Palermo, meanwhile, have gone 29W 15D 7L across 51 games — 2.00 PPG, with W-W-D-W-D in their last five. The sample for Palermo is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Palermo by 0.63 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Juve Stabia heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Juve Stabia have managed 10W 11D 4L from 25 games — 1.64 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Palermo's away record stands at 8W 11D 6L across 25 trips, a 1.40 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 2.00 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Palermo's season.
Goals in Recent Form
Juve Stabia are averaging 1.16 goals scored and 1.16 conceded per game recently; Palermo are on 1.73 scored and 0.96 conceded.
Defensively: Palermo in 39% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 51 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Juve Stabia
Blended
Palermo
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Juve Stabia and Palermo in coming into this match?
Juve Stabia have gone 16W 22D 13L in their last 51 games (1.37 PPG), while Palermo have gone 29W 15D 7L in their last 51 (2.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Juve Stabia at home or Palermo away?
Juve Stabia's home record (1.64 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Juve Stabia at home: 1.64 PPG; Palermo away: 1.40 PPG.
Have Juve Stabia or Palermo been keeping clean sheets recently?
Juve Stabia have kept a clean sheet in 29% of their recent games, Palermo in 39%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. The two were last together as recently as 23 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Juve Stabia's record when hosting Palermo specifically: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Juve Stabia
1
Draws
3
Palermo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Juve Stabia and Palermo?
From 6 meetings on record, Juve Stabia have won 2, Palermo have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Juve Stabia and Palermo last play each other?
They last met on 23 August 2026, when Palermo 1-0 Juve Stabia.
Who has won more matches between Juve Stabia and Palermo?
Palermo have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Juve Stabia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time.
Palermo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Juve Stabia 44%, Palermo 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 36% (Juve Stabia) and 44% (Palermo).
On the defensive side: Juve Stabia keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Juve Stabia home games / Palermo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Juve Stabia play Palermo?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Juve Stabia's recent matches and 60% of Palermo's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Juve Stabia vs Palermo usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 36% of Juve Stabia's recent games and 44% of Palermo's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Juve Stabia and Palermo tend to score early?
Juve Stabia have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Palermo in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.
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